Friday, January 31, 2014

US Intelligence: 1% H7N9 Kill Rate As "Among the Most Disruptive Events Possible", Global In 6 Months, Persists For 2 YEARS

The US Intelligence Agencies are now publicly specifying the risks of H7N9 by updating their reports to reference it by name. An intelligence threat report given to the US CONGRESS stated the following :

"If H7N9 influenza or any other novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than 1 percent of its victims were to become easily transmissible, the outcome would be among the most disruptive events possible.  Uncontrolled, such an outbreak would result in a global pandemic with suffering and death spreading globally in fewer than six months and would persist for approximately two years. " 
Currently H7N9 is incapacitating nearly 100% of its DETECTED victims and killing approximately 30% of them. H7N9's death would be 100% were it not for ventilators and ECMO machines. At any one time, in the USA there are only a few thousand excess ventilators available and less than 100 ECMO machines available right now. The current H1N1 outbreak has ECMO machines nearly stretched to their breaking point. 

As it stands now, either H7N9 does not yet spread readily among humans or it spreads readily and there are a more than 100 hidden cases for every detected case. Based on current available evidence we lean towards the latter assessment; but, we can not rule out the former. 

We believe in all likelihood H7N9 will enter the United States by Valentine's day 2014, but it remains to be seen if it will take a foot hold or even be detected. As it stands now, San Fransisco is the most likely port of entry for H7N9 and unfortunately it also has an aquatic environment perfectly suited for H7N9 to develop and maintain an environmental presence. 

The driver for these burning H7N9 embers entering the USA is tourisim related to Chinese New Year.
13% of all Chinese nationals planning a trip abroad for Chinese New Year are planning to head to California. Additionally, a second wave of H7N9 embers will arrive as Chinese New Year ends on 2/6/14 and US Persons who traveled to China for cultural or business reasons will be returning to the USA, again San Francisco is likely such an influx point. Throw in the Bay Area's, aquatic environment and San Francisco is a Trifecta for an imminent H7N9 beachhead, especially for the immunocompromised. 

A video and more expansive source documentation is forth coming.

Source Documents:

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

UPDATE: A Poultry Inspector May Have Infected Hong Kong's Wholesale Market With H7N9

Hong Kong has just slaughtered 16,984 chickens; 2,898 silky fowls; 1,080 pheasants; and 1,642 pigeons because some of the Chickens were shedding the H7N9 virus as detected by a PCR test. Because of that positive test, the authorities tracked down all the people logistically involved with these chickens.

"In collaboration with the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department and the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department, as of 4pm today, a total of 95 other contacts comprising 11 staff members of Man Kam To Animal Inspection Station (MKTAIS), 35 poultry workers at Cheung Sha Wan Temporary Wholesale Poultry Market and 49 workers involved in the culling operation have also been identified. They were put under medical surveillance and health advice was given. The CHP will follow-up on their health condition."
Among these people , 1 MKTAIS officer has/had developed unspecified symptoms; its reported he tested negative. Where as a delivery driver who is ASYMPTOMATIC is being held in isolation at Princess Margret Hospital. He had a respiratory specimen tested with a H7N9 RAPID Test, which has shown negative 

So why hold the guy with no symptoms in isolation while the guy with symptoms goes free? The best guess is the guy with symptoms had them prior to the discovery that the chickens were infected.  Of course this begs the question, could he or any other of the 95 people involved infected the chickens?

One would think that the Hong Kong authorities would have pretested the workers for H7N9 EXPOSURE prior to starting this upgraded round of poultry testing; if they have, its not being reported. Certainly an inspector would be in prime position to be a source of the infection, as well as a victim of such an infection.
Odds are that all 95 people are already on Antivirals and as such we may never know the timeline.

At the current time pressures are on to keep the public calm, and part of that effort seems to be to only promote information that points away from human transmissibility. The data points to Human to Human transmission, as we have previously explained (see video below).

 While the Chinese seem to be more forth coming with truthful information these days, it may be wise to consider that it may not be the whole truth;  nor may it be nothing but the truth. The desire to keep the public calm may include avoiding investigating things that point away from desired outcomes.


Source Info:

Sunday, January 26, 2014

FEMA Eyeing 72 hour Notice Turnkey Responder Base Camps in Hawaii, Samoa, And Guam

FEMA is looking for outfits that can set up turnkey "Base Support Camp"(s) in the Pacific.
The RFI identifies them National Responder Support Camps. Based on the documentation, these are standalone all inclusive camps with segregated male and female areas; all contained within a fenced security barrier.

Apparently FEMA does not expect these "Responders" to do much physical "responding" outside of the camp's fenced security barrier, because they also want these camps to have exercise yards. The responders also require disability access, and some requirement to have Kosher and vegetarian foods.

One has to wonder how these "Support Camps" will fit in with the contract the Centers For Disease Control (CDC) awarded ASIA Pacific Airlines for the Emergency Delivery Of Strategic National Medical Stockpile to the Pacific.

But have no worries, these camps will be happy happy happy places as personified by the joyful face of this FEMA Mass Care Group Supervisor shown on FEMA's website. (see photo below)

Our Parody of FEMA's photo:

Photo courtesy FEMA (original)

Ask yourself: 

"Do I really want to spend the next Month at this camp with 2,000 of my closest friends?"

Be prepared, lest some one prepare for you!


Base Support Camp for Hawaii, America Samoa and GuamSolicitation Number: HSFE09-RFI

H7N9: CDC Contracting Emergency Delivery Of Strategic National Medical Stockpile to the Pacific

Armed EPA Water Quality Agents Seek To Identify INDIVIDUAL Twitter Users with Diarrhea

As strange and crappy as it sounds, you now face the threat of fines and arrest from the Federal government for using your toilet if you have diarrhea.  The EPA is setting up the legal foundation and technical capability to send armed EPA agents to enforce water quality violations against individuals with the squirts.

From  D--BPA for Twitter

Solicitation Number: RFQ-DC-14-00044
"[The EPA] is conducting a study to develop the use of social media to identify individuals in the United States that are suffering from Acute Gastroenteritis Infections (AGI)." 
"The following example search terms are considered evidence of AGI: Stomach flu, stomach bug, stomach ache, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. These as well as other terms and various attributes (e.g, geotags, dates, etc.) will be supplied"
The purpose of EPA's effort is to identify individuals with communicable water born spread diseases and correlate their self reporting on Twitter with the results of water quality testing. The effort appears to be in support of a Rule by the Environmental Protection Agency released on 02/13/2013. The National Primary Drinking Water Regulations: Revisions to the Total Coliform Rule

Of course just because the EPA thinks it has the right to raid your home because you have a case of the squirts, doesn't mean they will really do it, does it? On the other hand, don't we all feel safer knowing that the EPA can now track down self identifying Typhoid Mary wannabes in real time?

Friday, January 24, 2014

Humans Spread H7N9 but Migratory Birds Provide The Spark.

The above chart allows insight into H7N9's source reservoir,  and how the infection is spread by human activity. The information is summarized below; greater detail is given in the soon to be embedded video above.

The key take aways are:

(1) Humans are the source of H7N9's explosive infection rates
(2) Humans catch and spread H7N9 during Paid National Holidays
(3) The infection ignites, and infection embers persist in an area, because of migratory water fowl.
(4) Typhoon FITOW seeded Zhejiang's 2014 H7N9 explosion
(5) H7N9 mostly operates like a seasonal flu, but remains infectious off season
(6) 2013 human infections served to reduce the same province infection rates in 2014

Placing the above epidemiological information in China's geography context (see map below) gives further insight.

(1) River deltas are H7N9's infectious stomping grounds
(2) Guangdong's  infections were seeded by winter bird migration
(3) H7N9 Ground zero maybe somewhere between Guangdong and Shanghai


The analysis would be greatly improved via a dynamic simulation.
Chinese New Year 2014 is poised to significantly spread H7N9.
Shutting down wet markets may be ineffective at stemming H7N9's spread
River Deltas in the USA are a prime place for H7N9 to establish a foothold.
Urban feral bird populations (pigeons, sparrows) may be a H7N9 breeding ground.

View Larger Map

Thursday, January 23, 2014

ALERT! Hong Kong Hospitals Are Stretched PAST the Breaking Point

Hong Kong has no more inpatient bed capacity left. Yesterday (1/21) the Hong Kong Hospital Authority started tracking available Inpatient bed space. Some hospitals are running at 132% of capacity, the lowest number we have seen is 95% of capacity. Their entire hospital system is running close to 110% of capacity.

Hong Kong is primed to crash medically. So far, only the liberal use of antivirals has kept their H7N9 confirmable DETECTION numbers low. We expect H7N9 infection rates to go 7 TIMES higher as a result of the Chinese New Year Celebrations. STAY FAR AWAY FROM HONG KONG!

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

MAX ALERT, USA AT RISK: Expect 30+ New H7N9 INFECTIONS DAILY IN CHINA After Chinese New Year's Holiday

The chart above clearly indicates that spikes in H7N9 are primarily tied to PAID National Holidays in China.

The H7N9 outbreak started last year as a result of Chinese New Year, and 2014's Chinese New Year appears headed for a much greater spike (especially in locations with low 2013 infection rates).

The current spike is from the Gregorian New Year Holiday, Jan 1 (one paid day off),
The next H7N9 spike will be from the 2014 Chinese New Year Holidays, January 31- February 6th (7 paid days off).

A very simple static parametric analysis indicates the rates of H7N9 rates of infection resulting from the Chinese New Year will initially be 7 times greater than what occurred as a result of the Jan 1st holiday. A dynamic analysis from a Discrete Event Simulation could give much greater insight into the epidemiology.

Obviously, this situation means a greatly increased risk that H7N9 will enter the United States as people return from celebrating the holiday in China. We expect that H7N9 will be in the United States by Valentine's Day. 

There will be a follow on Blogpost and Video with further details and analysis of the the above chart and the resultant risks.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Six new H7N9 cases in China

"According to sources, Zhejiang Province, the first patient was 57-year-old man living in Linhai City; second patient was 49-year-old man, living in Hangzhou Xiaoshan District; third of 70-year-old man living in Shaoxing Bridge area; 3 per capita for farmers, now the condition is severe"

"While the Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, three patients, the first 39-year-old woman, now living in Longgang District, for commercial service, January 3 disease, is now in stable condition; second was 59-year-old woman, living in Luohu District , Jan. 13 onset; third is 76 year old man living in Futian District, January 9 onset; second, three patients have been retired, and now are in critical condition "


Monday, January 20, 2014

Doctor's Rapid H7N9 Death Resulted From ECMO Shortage and Obesity: Claim No H7N9 Patients At Hospital

H7N9 destroyed Dr Zhang Xiaodong lungs in ONE DAY!.

In the latest update it is being reported that Dr Zhang died so rapidly because there was no Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) machine available. It is also being claimed that his obesity was a co-factor in his decline.

Much as it sounds, ECMO is an artificial lung; it is a last ditch effort to keep someone alive. Unfortunately ECMO machines are expensive and expert manpower intensive; as such ECMO machines are short in supply and extremely prone to being overwhelmed in any sort of pandemic. Supposedly there are only roughly 400 ECMO machines in the United States.

The hospital is reporting that they have had no H7N9 patients and therefore Dr Zhang's infection was supposedly not Human to Human. However, given his last indirect exposure to poultry was almost 8 days prior, it is Six Sigma unlikely that birds were the source of his infection. The Chinese appear to be engaging in deliberate obfuscation when it comes to publicly analyzing the data, they have a strong social order / fear reason to downplay human to human transmission, especially during Chinese New Year celebrations & travels.

Frankly, it would have been much more reassuring if  Dr Zhang had knowingly treated a H7N9 patient during one of his Emergency surgeries, as this would have been a known blood borne exposure route. In that regard, we have surmised he was infected while performing an appendectomy.

Given the newly obtained information from his hospital, the odds are even higher now that there is a on going and hidden H7N9 human to human transmission chain. One thing is clear, our medical system is not able to handle even a small uptick in demand for ECMO machines, even the current H1N1 swine flu outbreak is tasking availability.

H7N9 has the potential to kill billions of people, but it is not there yet. People in China are not yet dropping like flies, but that is no guarantee that H7N9 won't behave differently once it gets outside of China. The situation is worth watching and preparing for, but not yet at the point where risk mitigation should be significantly taxing to household finances. Of course, people with preexisting medical conditions may be at greater risk.


6 Sigma Probability Chinese Doctor Died Of Human To Human H7N9 Infection Transmission

Given the known dates of direct and indirect exposure to poultry for Dr Zhang, his disease onset (and self treatment)  falls on the 6 Sigma tail of H7N9's  known incubation period (see chart below). In short, this means that it is extremely unlikely that the Doctor acquired H7N9 from those exposures.

Conversely, the data indicates that Dr Zhang was more likely to have been infected during the time period he was performing surgeries at his Emergency Room. Given that his most recent reported work was performing multiple Emergency appendectomies, a prima facie case can be made he was likely infected during such surgery. 

However, it is important to note that as a Surgeon, he had a much higher risk of exposure to H7N9 from bodily fluids (aerosolized or otherwise) than most people. As such, his exposure does not necessarily indicate increased risk outside of the Hospital environment. But, it does indicate it may be wise to stay away from hospitals during Pandemic flu outbreaks.

Chart Source:
The Lancet

Chinese ER Surgeon Dr Zhang Xiaodong Died of H7N9 Avian Influenza After Performing Appendectomies

UPDATE: Dr Zhang's last known INDIRECT exposure to birds was on January 4th.
January 4th stay at home parents, their next-door neighbor has a case of keeping pigeons; hospital patients where there is a diagonally opposite the main entrance of the road with a live bird markets transactions.
Dr Zhang is reported to have self medicated when the disease onset on January 11th; meaning his last known DIRECT exposure to birds was on New Year's Day.
"No history of exposure before the onset of influenza-like illness within 10 days straight".
It appears he began taking antivirals on January 15th, yet was still performing appendectomies at the Emergency Room..He stopped performing surgeries and checked himself into the ER on January 17th; he died on January. Colleagues blame Dr Zhang's rapid decline on being overworked at an understaffed hospital.

Public fears are that this was a case of Human to Human transmission. And based on disease onset periods, it is more probable that it was a case of Human to Human transmission than pigeon acquired.

We broke on Twitter that a Chinese Emergency Room doctor had died of what was suspected to be H7N9 avian influenza; that information has been confirmed in the Chinese Press today. He has been identified as Dr Zhang Xiaodong, and is reported to be a well known Internet blogger.

Key information now coming out about the situation is that Dr Zhang had performed 5 appendectomies withing recent days;. we suspect that those GI surgeries were his route of exposure. H7N9 is primarily an intestinal disease in Birds and seems to have the same effects in humans. He may have had a patient who presented with appendicitis which was really driven by an H7N9 infection.

He is reported to have had a continuous fever for 2 days, which at some point (1 day before hospitalization?)was relieved by some sort of medicine, including IV fluids for dehydration, he received from his fellow doctors. Apparently he worked tirelessly through out this entire period of illness, and then within a 1 day period developed pneumonia which traveled from his lower lobes to at least one upper lobe; killing him.

The human to human spread risks with this situation are obvious; in that regard, his Emergency Room has been shutdown and the hospital staff have been directed to take ISATIS as a preventative medicine. ISATIS is a Traditional Chinese Medicine which seemingly the entire Chinese population has been taking in massive numbers to ward off bird flu. ISATIS is starting to be difficult to obtain in the United States, a brand we use- Thorne Research (no conflict of interest)- has had to discontinue production. 

Further Updates to come.


Tuesday, January 14, 2014

ALERT! FEMA Seeks BioMedical Disposal Capability To Support 1,000 TENT HOSPITALS, On 24 Hours Notice

FEMA is seeking contracters who can supply MEDICAL BIOHAZARD disposal capabilities and 40 yard dumpsters to 1,000 TENT HOSPITALS across the United States; all required on 24-48 hour notice.

Based on this and other previous (insane) bizops orders from FEMA its pretty obvious they are spooling up the National Disaster Medical System to respond to some national catastrophic. The obvious candidates are a H7N9 pandemic or a worsening of the current H1N1 epidemic.

The effort seems to be geared towards deploying Federal Medical Stations to 1000 locations across the USA and staffing them each with 100 medical personnel. In that regard, FEMA has attempted to order 200,000 pairs of Doctor's Scrubs for 24hr delivery @ 200 pairs per tent hospital. Not surprisingly, industry informed FEMA this was impossible. FEMA also attempted to order mobile showers and toilets to support the effort, again industry informed FEMA that they could not handle the "Armageddon Scenario". At least this time FEMA seems to have learned something and is first asking for capability assessments before putting out unsupportable purchase orders.

So what does it all mean? It means a clustermess is inevitable should such medical services actually be required. Given the number of current H1N1 patients using the very limited number of available artificial lungs, ECMO machines, such a spool up of the National Disaster Medical System is a clear near term possibility. Unfortunately the possibility of 1000 tent hospitals each handled with the same alacrity as  Hurricane Katrina is also highly likely, AKA CLUSTERMESS.


Dumpster & Bio Medical Waste Services Solicitation Number: HSFE70-14-I-0006

48 Hour Delivery Order: 100,000 "Doctor Scrubs"; 1000 (100 Person) Shelters; + Fuel, Showers, Bathrooms, and Hygine Equipment; Apparent Mobilization of the National Disaster Medical System

MASSIVE ALERT! HHS Forces Doomsday Prepping on ALL Medicare & Medicaid Providers

FDA Directs Critical Drug Manufacturers to Prep For Massive Employee Absenteeism 

Healthcare and Public Health (Federal) Threat Operations Center (HTOC) 

DMORT: Mobile Mortuary Response System Activation and Pandemic Flu Drills 

USDA Hiring Call-up To Mobilize The National Animal Health Emergency Response Corps For H7N9 Bird Flu 

CDC Says: "the US health care system is likely to be overwhelmed" from H7N9 Outbreak

MAX ALERT: CDC Plans Live EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM Pandemic Flu Broadcast 

Hemorrhagic H7N9 Avian Flu + Pandemic Blood Shortage = $57,000,000 award to Cellphire for Thrombosomes

Monday, January 13, 2014

[Bad News] West Virginia Chemical Spill: FEMA Readies To Order Mobile Showers & Toilets

Looks like the folks in West Virginia are going to be without tap water for quite some time. On Saturday FEMA put out a
 "Request for Information RFI for the delivery of Standard and ADA Shower Trailer(S), Restroom Trailer(s) and/or Port- a-Potties to support the Chemical spill in West Virginia".
Best round up what water you can while you can.


Medicine Is getting the IDENTICAL Takeover That The Financial & Military Systems Got In Prelude to WW1

Most people don't know that the United States of America has been in a CONTINUOUS STATE OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY since WW1. It is a never ending and on going State Of Emergency which gives the President his powers to rule by decree and to control the individual States military forces as if they were part of the Federal military force.

Of course, the Executive Branch has to keep coming up with NEW National Emergencies to justify the continued use of such powers. A hundred years ago they had World War One as the excuse; these days they don't even bother making it believable,  Barack Obama's  May 2013 Executive Order declaring the rebuilding of IRAQ a National Emergency is just such a farcical example of the excuses given to maintain these kingly powers.

But it goes beyond the Executive branch, most people don't know how our entire monetary system was Nationalized by a sneaky Christmas Eve Congressional move, also taken in the prelude to WW1. What even fewer people realize is that this same takeover pattern is now being repeated with the Medical system.

We will have more to come on this in coming weeks.  One thing you can expect to happen as the medical system declines is the creation of non-specific, indefinite Emergency Use Authorizations (EUA) as a permanent quick fix for a system in decline. If you don't believe its already happen, the Food and Drug Administration spells it out quite clearly here:
http://FDA Questions and Answers for Public Health Preparedness and Response Stakeholders

But don't expect things to fall apart overnight, one has to boil the frog slowly lest it becomes aware its being cooked; its taken us one hundred years to get in the mess we are in today. However, any good crisis and panic needs to be properly taken advantage of for the people to celebrate and demand further decline. ObamaCare and a possible H7N9 pandemic is certainly made to order to fit that bill of goods.

See Also

CDC Creates New Division To CONTROL State And Local PANDEMIC Response!

Edited to add, seems others are starting to notice too.

Bailing Out Health Insurers and Helping Obamacare

Sunday, January 12, 2014

"Common" Cold May Have Helped Spread H5N1 In Chinese Canadian Victim

UPDATE: 2/7/14 

Canadians LIED About H5N1 Patient Not Having Respiratory Symptoms


It appears that the Canadian Chinese victim of the H5N1 may have become infected by contact with an individual who had a simultaneous "Common" Cold (HCoV  229E) and subclinical  H5N1 infections.

She was found to have HCoV 229E in a nasopharyngeal swab, but not in her lungs. Canadian medical officials supposedly did not observed any coughing, but did report vomiting (any one sharing the aircraft restroom with her should be concerned).

Given the lady's lack of exposure to poultry in Beijing and  the lack of reports of H5N1 in Beijing, the HCoV 229E and H5N1 combination are prima facie evidence that she was infected by H5N1 via a person who was  subclinically shedding birdflu, but who was simultaneously clinical for common cold symptoms which thereby allowed the H5N1 to be readily transmissible and yet present subclinically. Such cases tend would tend to go undiagnosed.

But, none of that excuses the lack of proactive treatment given  the ~20 year old Chinese Canadian nurse from Reddeer. She was diagnosed with pneumonia after her return from China but was UNBELIEVABLY not even given the option of Antiviral treatment. In the after math of her death, the public health herd based medical system kicked in to figure out what happened after the fact.

In the short term, it is more economical and effective to let a few sentinel cows die off, and trigger a public health response in the after math, than it is to pro actively treat, test, and investigate a cow that might be the sentinel of a unusual outbreak. The system can get away with it because the cow in question is not the one paying them for their services, and the government which redistributes wealth to pay for those services also prevents the cow (or its relatives) from effectively engaging in medical malpractice lawsuits. Unfortunately we now too have such a veterinary, herd based medical system now forced on us as ObamaCare here in the United States. The key with selling these systems to the public is hiding the decline of the system as it switches from a patient-doctor healthcare interaction to a Government-doctor-herd based system, while simultaneously making each individual in the herd believe that they are going to be treated as if they were a prized Heifer. 

What is clear is that universal Healthcare did not give the poor Canadian  a fighting chance at life, and while in the short run it might have been cheaper not to offer her antivirals, and perform flu tests; in the long run, the woman had at least 12 days to expose North America to a deadly disease. So while the Canadians are singing the praises of their response to the situation, have no doubt it was an abject failure for both the lady who died, and the public who believes that authorities have any capability to actually prevent the import of a deadly disease or stop it immediately after it enters. Don't be surprised if H5N1 has made it into the Canadian eco system, and don't be surprised if there are already several hidden cases of H7N9 bird flu in the Seattle and Vancouver areas.


HCoV-229E is a proven common cold virus in healthy adults

Friday, January 10, 2014

Likely HOSPITAL ACQUIRED H7N9 Bird Flu in Hong Kong

Story out of Hong Kong today of a 1 yr old boy in critical condition in Hong Kong's Queen Elizabeth Hospital. He diagnosed with Influenza B and admitted to the Hospital on on December 24th. His condition improved after treatment. On Jan 4th the boy's fever returned and his respiratory samples tested positive for Influenza A. Its reported that there is no history of travel and his home contacts are asymptomatic, an indication that the authorities suspect that this is a now a H7N9 case.

"His condition deteriorated and was subsequently transferred to the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit for further management on January 9. The boy is now in critical condition."

It appears obvious that this is a hospital acquired infection; not a good time to be in Hong Kong.


Thursday, January 9, 2014

An Airplane Toilet Is A PRIME Place To Spread Bird Flu

UPDATE: 2/7/14

Canadians LIED About H5N1 Patient Not Having Respiratory Symptoms

Much has been made of the report that the Canadian H5N1 bird flu victim had little to no respiratory involvement, ie no coughing etc. In birds, the bird flu is mostly intestinal; It appears that the case may be the same with both H5N1 and H7N9 bird flu in humans.

So far we have not seen any reports that the Canadian victim had diarrhea or vomiting, but we expect that she probably did have these symptoms. And given such intestinal symptoms, an aircraft toilet is the perfect place to spread the disease via both surface contamination and aerosolized flush related contamination.

In that regard, it would not surprise us if there were additional H5N1 cases related to the Canadian incident. However, we would expect those cases to be self limiting, and likely undetectable as no one is going to be looking for H5N1 as a cause of death in any case not directly tied to China.

But we will add one Caveat, there have been rumors of the Chinese engaging in Gain of Function (GOF) research with H5N1; that situation would change the ball game and the risk profile of this Canadian detection. Given, the woman's supposed lack of contact with poultry in Beijing, one might surmise something unusual is occurring, but she could just as easily come in contact with infected pigeon droppings.

In the mean time, the real take away from this case is that from an epidemiological perspective it is  much easier for H7N9 to jump on board an aircraft than it is for H5N1. Given that the Canadian victim was infectious for 12 days before the authorities understood what was happening, and that the infection time is roughly 3 days from exposure; it is clear that North America has little chance of putting the Genie back in the bottle once it gets on the runs.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Hemorrhagic H7N9 Bird Flu Described As WORST EVER SEEN By Veteran SARS & H5N1 Expert!

The Chinese have been very shy about reporting the Hemorrhagic nature of the H7N9 Bird Flu, for obvious reasons.  However today in Shenshen, an expert veteran of SARS and  H5N1 fame, described H7N9  as the worst he has ever seen.

"the emergence of early patients with severe pneumonia, respiratory failure, sepsis and systemic as well as other parts of the "super bacteria" caused infections, such as empyema, urinary tract infection, drug therapy in general less sensitive. Imported multi sepsis associated streptozotocin only then under control, but the patient is allergic, drug allergies in general, the emergence of drug rash, skin rash. Sepsis has inspired the lower limbs phlebitis, phlebitis, thrombosis, pulmonary embolism prone to thrombosis, can cause the patient's life at risk. In the middle of thrombolysis procedure, the patient appeared muscle bleeding conditions, infection status has not been completely controlled."


TRAVEL ALERT: KOWLOON, HK: Indication of Human H7N9 Bird Flu Outbreak

We suspect Human to Human H7N9 Bird Flu transmission is occurring in Kowloon Hong Kong, with school age children being the primary vector of exposure.

On January 6th the Hong Kong authorities shut down a special needs school in the Sham Shui Po district in Kowloon because of an unsubtyped influenza outbreak and death. This outbreak occurred despite indications that the school requires FLU vaccination as a condition of attendance.

On January 7th the Hong Kong authorities confirmed that an 65 year old male resident of the Sham Shui Po district had H7N9 Bird Flu. The man had no direct contact with poultry, he also has a underlying chronic medical condition. It is reported that the victim "may sometimes walk pass the entrance of Pei Ho Street Market in Sham Shui Po in the morning".

With that information in mind we mapped the distance between the school and the 67 year old male's residence (as indicated by his morning walk). The newest H7N9 victim lives within one mile of the location of the Chi Yun School unsubtyped influenza cluster (see map below).

Given the current conditions and what occurred in Kowloon between December and January, we believe it is abundantly wise to avoid travel to Kowloon, Hong Kong.

View Larger Map

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

OSHA to Federalize Infection Control Programs

There goes local responsibility and accountability for bad and good infection control decisions; once again monolithic centralized planners know whats best and will FORCE it upon you. And when such systems fail, they fail in major catastrophic ways.
"OSHA is considering the need for a standard to ensure that employers establish a comprehensive infection control program and control measures to protect employees from infectious disease exposures to pathogens that can cause significant disease. Workplaces where such control measures might be necessary include: health care, emergency response, correctional facilities, homeless shelters, drug treatment programs, and other occupational settings where employees can be at increased risk of exposure to potentially infectious people. A standard could also apply to laboratories, which handle materials that may be a source of pathogens, and to pathologists, coroners' offices, medical examiners, and mortuaries"


Monday, January 6, 2014

As Predicted, Saint Louis Had A Radioactive Snow Storm

As we had predicted, based on the Jet Stream pattern, we did have a radioactive snow storm here is Saint Louis. We captured the entirety of the event on our Live Outdoor & Indoor AIRBORNE Radiation Monitors. (see Images below)

A peculiar aspect of this storm is that the radiation started spiking upwards approximately 6 hours after the storm / snowfall began. Radiation levels remained elevated for roughly 10 hours. The maximum level occurred at roughly at 7:45 am, and was primarily composed of Gamma radiation as the spike was also detected on our indoor monitor.

Based on previous observations, these events tie to radioactive ground water steamed up from the ground in Fukushima and transported via the JetStream to the USA. The primary immediate risk from such events are radioactive Iodines and Xenons, neither of which are readily detectable in swipes taken after the fact. Radioactive Cesium from weather events has made it into the Missouri food chain, as we have documented in the professional radiological beef testing we have had performed on samples of grass fed beef.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

We're Expecting RADIOACTIVE SNOW, Will Our Geiger Counter Survive -10ºF

Update: Yes it was a radioactive snow storm, and our monitor survived -8ºF
See details here:

Based on the latest JetStream map, we are expecting Fukushima related Radioactive Snow detections here in Saint Louis. 
The question is will our Live Outdoor Geiger Counter survive the expected -10ºF temperatures expected during this likely radioactive snow storm?

Watch our Live Saint Louis Outdoor Radiation detector to find out if it survives and exactly how "hot" the snow actually becomes.

Our system is best viewed and explained at its dedicated web page linked here:


Watch live streaming video from potrblog at

Friday, January 3, 2014

H1N1 SWINE FLU Predictive Map of HIGH RISK Counties In The USA

We suspect that the H1N1 Swine Flu honed its virulence at the 2013 Hajj in Saudi Arabia, as such the map in the video is indicative of high density populations which would have primary exposure to Swine Flu returning from the Hajj.

Counties in colored Red and Orange have higher risks. Additionally, high wealth counties and warmer counties have increased risk beyond what is shown on the map. These additional risks correlate to the financial ability to attend the Hajj and the warmer weather the swine flu virus tends to prefer. As always, population density is also a factor. Hence, yellow and green colored counties with those risk modifiers may also have increased risk profiles.