Friday, January 31, 2014

US Intelligence: 1% H7N9 Kill Rate As "Among the Most Disruptive Events Possible", Global In 6 Months, Persists For 2 YEARS

The US Intelligence Agencies are now publicly specifying the risks of H7N9 by updating their reports to reference it by name. An intelligence threat report given to the US CONGRESS stated the following :

"If H7N9 influenza or any other novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than 1 percent of its victims were to become easily transmissible, the outcome would be among the most disruptive events possible.  Uncontrolled, such an outbreak would result in a global pandemic with suffering and death spreading globally in fewer than six months and would persist for approximately two years. " 
Currently H7N9 is incapacitating nearly 100% of its DETECTED victims and killing approximately 30% of them. H7N9's death would be 100% were it not for ventilators and ECMO machines. At any one time, in the USA there are only a few thousand excess ventilators available and less than 100 ECMO machines available right now. The current H1N1 outbreak has ECMO machines nearly stretched to their breaking point. 

As it stands now, either H7N9 does not yet spread readily among humans or it spreads readily and there are a more than 100 hidden cases for every detected case. Based on current available evidence we lean towards the latter assessment; but, we can not rule out the former. 

We believe in all likelihood H7N9 will enter the United States by Valentine's day 2014, but it remains to be seen if it will take a foot hold or even be detected. As it stands now, San Fransisco is the most likely port of entry for H7N9 and unfortunately it also has an aquatic environment perfectly suited for H7N9 to develop and maintain an environmental presence. 

The driver for these burning H7N9 embers entering the USA is tourisim related to Chinese New Year.
13% of all Chinese nationals planning a trip abroad for Chinese New Year are planning to head to California. Additionally, a second wave of H7N9 embers will arrive as Chinese New Year ends on 2/6/14 and US Persons who traveled to China for cultural or business reasons will be returning to the USA, again San Francisco is likely such an influx point. Throw in the Bay Area's, aquatic environment and San Francisco is a Trifecta for an imminent H7N9 beachhead, especially for the immunocompromised. 

A video and more expansive source documentation is forth coming.

Source Documents:

1 comment:

    The Chinese authorities on Jan. 27 acknowledged for the first time that they have discovered cases of human-to-human infection with the H7N9 bird flu, while remaining vague on the details in an attempt to prevent public panic.

    In a short statement on Jan. 27, the authorities said that human-to-human transmission was recorded in eastern China’s Zhejiang Province. They do not specify the number of cases, nor the city in which they took place......