Wednesday, January 22, 2014

MAX ALERT, USA AT RISK: Expect 30+ New H7N9 INFECTIONS DAILY IN CHINA After Chinese New Year's Holiday

The chart above clearly indicates that spikes in H7N9 are primarily tied to PAID National Holidays in China.

The H7N9 outbreak started last year as a result of Chinese New Year, and 2014's Chinese New Year appears headed for a much greater spike (especially in locations with low 2013 infection rates).

The current spike is from the Gregorian New Year Holiday, Jan 1 (one paid day off),
The next H7N9 spike will be from the 2014 Chinese New Year Holidays, January 31- February 6th (7 paid days off).

A very simple static parametric analysis indicates the rates of H7N9 rates of infection resulting from the Chinese New Year will initially be 7 times greater than what occurred as a result of the Jan 1st holiday. A dynamic analysis from a Discrete Event Simulation could give much greater insight into the epidemiology.

Obviously, this situation means a greatly increased risk that H7N9 will enter the United States as people return from celebrating the holiday in China. We expect that H7N9 will be in the United States by Valentine's Day. 

There will be a follow on Blogpost and Video with further details and analysis of the the above chart and the resultant risks.

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