Friday, January 24, 2014

Humans Spread H7N9 but Migratory Birds Provide The Spark.

The above chart allows insight into H7N9's source reservoir,  and how the infection is spread by human activity. The information is summarized below; greater detail is given in the soon to be embedded video above.

The key take aways are:

(1) Humans are the source of H7N9's explosive infection rates
(2) Humans catch and spread H7N9 during Paid National Holidays
(3) The infection ignites, and infection embers persist in an area, because of migratory water fowl.
(4) Typhoon FITOW seeded Zhejiang's 2014 H7N9 explosion
(5) H7N9 mostly operates like a seasonal flu, but remains infectious off season
(6) 2013 human infections served to reduce the same province infection rates in 2014

Placing the above epidemiological information in China's geography context (see map below) gives further insight.

(1) River deltas are H7N9's infectious stomping grounds
(2) Guangdong's  infections were seeded by winter bird migration
(3) H7N9 Ground zero maybe somewhere between Guangdong and Shanghai


The analysis would be greatly improved via a dynamic simulation.
Chinese New Year 2014 is poised to significantly spread H7N9.
Shutting down wet markets may be ineffective at stemming H7N9's spread
River Deltas in the USA are a prime place for H7N9 to establish a foothold.
Urban feral bird populations (pigeons, sparrows) may be a H7N9 breeding ground.

View Larger Map

1 comment:


    Key word "pigeons"