Tuesday, December 3, 2013

HONG KONG: Eight Hundred New H7N9 INFECTIONS by 12/12/13, with 4 New DETECTIONS by 12/9

UPDATE 7: 12/18/13
A 26 hour emergency room wait is now being reported for patients who were triaged as "Semi-Urgent".  Previously the wait time we saw was 15 hours for any patient

UPDATE 6: 12/14/13

Our rough estimate is being substantiated by Hong Kong's tracking of people seeking flu treatment Chinese Medicine Practitioners; there was a 644% increase in people seeking Flu treatment from the week ending November 23 to the week ending December 7th. See the chart here:
Prophylactic use of Antivirals is also affecting testing results, as there are multiple cases of symptomatic H7N9 in close contacts who are still testing negative.

We estimate that by 12/12 there will be at least 800 cases of new H7N9 infections in Hong Kong, of this number we expect there will be 4 clinical H7N9 detections by 12/9 and 8 clinical H7N9 detections by 12/16

 Ours is a back of envelope calculation, it is based on reports that the H7N9 infected Indonesian maid has been coughing since 11/21 and reports that her employer's family are also coughing. We took a look at the infection timeline, and the potential numbers of people exposed during that time frame and ASSUMED NO AGGRESSIVE  ANTIVIRAL campaign for symptomatic persons, and  continued cold weather for the region.

Update #1.

Seven health care workers are reported to have symptoms, this is in addition to the 4 house hold members who also have symptoms, these 11 people are reported to have tested negative in a rapid H7 test.
And, in an interesting testing distinction an additional 6 individuals are waiting for laboratory testing to return results.  All 17 of these individuals are under quarantine and are undergoing antiviral treatment, an additional 200+ individuals are under observation and have been offered antiviral treatment.

It is important to note that patient zero tested negative 2 times before finally testing positive, and obvious H7N9 patients with full blown ARDS have also previously tested negative.

UPDATE #2 12/4

The situation is being called "EXPLOSIVE".  Emergency rooms in Hong Kong are bursting with patients with Influenza Like Illness (ILI), there is a 15 hour wait to see patients.  The Queen Elizabeth hospital was packed with more than 150 patients. Hospitals are starting to use temporary beds (meaning people are being admitted).

Source Link:
H7N9 scare forced burst QEH  flu Everyone crowded emergency room on the ward for more than 15 hours, etc. 


Internal Hospital emails show that the #H7N9 infected Indonesian maid actually tested H7N9 positive on November 28th, FIVE FULL DAYS BEFORE THE PUBLIC WAS NOTIFIED OR QUARANTINE ACTION WAS TAKEN.
Source Link

Breaking Update #4  12/6
As we Tweeted earlier this morning, A 2nd victim has been confirmed in Hong Kong (we expect at least 2 more by Monday). This 2nd victim's time line suggests that he has a HOSPITAL ACQUIRED H7N9 infection which he picked up when he entered the EMERGENCY ROOM of the 1st victim's hospital. see: Inflection Point Hong Kong: Hunker Down or Run While You Still Can?

UPDATE 5:  12/10/13

Additional medical staff and 48 beds are being added to the Emergency Room in Kowloon. As we have previously reported, we suspect Kowloon Primary Schools are the current Hong Kong outbreak source. 

The Hospital authority is also pledging to improve H7N9 diagnoistics.

1 comment:

  1. Please see:

    Might it be helpful with regard to Bird FLU?