Monday, June 11, 2012

Data Shows Highly Radioactive Field Saturated Geiger Counter In South Bend Indiana

We have reanalyzed  the data from the June 6-7th, 2012 airborne radioactive detection in South Bend, Indiana.

The key findings are as follows:

  1. The termination edge of the Jet Stream was located over the radioactive detection area
  2. The high radioactive readings commenced after the 5 mph North wind dropped to zero mph.
  3. The high radioactive readings persisted for the entire 5 hours the wind was not blowing
  4. The high radioactive readings stopped when the wind picked up at 5 mph from the west. 
  5. Normal radioactive readings continued for 40 minutes after the surface wind resumption ended the event. 
  6. The bimodal "clipped" peak features and dropout shown in the 5 hour long radioactive detection are from a highly radioactive field saturating the detector's Geiger-Mueller tube.
  7. Hysteresis is evident on the saturation recovery condition side of the readings.
  8. A Weibull based radiation intensity distribution approximates both ends of the detection curve.
  9. High Beta radiation (electrons) likely tripped the reported Ground Fault Interrupt outlet.
  10. There is no simple power supply driven failure mode that can duplicate the above conditions.
  11. Higher airborne radioactive readings have been detected along the Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream.

The key steps forward are as follows:
  1. Perform sample swipes in and around the specific area Geiger counter area
  2. Identify the specific detection location within at minimum a 5 mile area.
  3. Identify the specifics of the Geiger counter and associated setup.
  4. Attempt  to replicate the 5 hour long detection via a power supply / GFI failure
Possible conclusions:
  1. The airborne fallout was from a small  but very radioactive source near the detection location
  2. A near source scenario would likely be South-East of the location, or possibly North of the location.
  3. A far source scenario would be Jet Stream born


  1. Thanks for this video. I have a few questions. My first question has to do with the implications of the theory you discuss here. On the night of the alert, the Radiation Network screen showed numbers as high as 7000 cpm (I think it was cpm--for some reason the Black Cat numbers seemed lower). If it is true that the geiger counter that detected this very hot plume became saturated, that would mean that the actual total cpm would likely have been even higher than 7000 cpm, right? If I am understanding it correctly, the chart posted above seems to indicate that the total cpm might have gone up well past 8000 cpm. Is that correct?

    Second, I have been trying to find out how to get from the cpm to some estimate of exposure in either mR or mSv, but I have been unable to find a clear explanation of how such a conversion could be made. I suppose it would really require knowledge of whether it was alpha, beta, or gamma (or how much of each), but do you have any sense of what kind of exposure in mRem or mSv might have resulted from this plume to someone caught outside in it?

    Finally, given a plume like this, how effective would its radiation be in penetrating through buildings to irradiate people who are indoors as it passes? Would they get anything close to the level of exposure received by people outdoors, or would distance and shielding be likely to diminish it significantly? I suppose this question also turns upon precisely what types of isotopes/emitters were in this cloud, but I would appreciate any insights you might have on this question.

    Thanks for looking at this event so carefully. It's pretty astonishing that such an incredibly radioactive thing can float through a major university town in 2012 and yet most of the people in the town could remain completely unaware and uninformed about it. It was one thing in the 1950s when people were only beginning to understand fallout, but in the 21st century things really ought to be different (it's pathetic and very depressing).

    1. We've been told that the readings on the Blackcatsystems site are in uR/hr (despite what their charts say). We would be very hesitant to make dosage warnings for multiple reasons; primary among them is that we know next to nothing about the actual Geiger counter doing the detecting. The most accurate thing we can say is that the Geiger tube experience a radioactive field of greater intensity than it was designed to operate in.

      With those provisos, and working with what we little we have, our estimate is that had the Geiger not saturated the blackcatsystem's chart would have peaked at 8,400 "CPM". We take that to mean the reading would have been 8.4 millirems/hr. A chest x-ray is about 10 millirems, of course there is a difference between having a chest x ray and inhaling the chest x ray machine.

      Our best guess based on the area under the curve in the Weibull chart we used, is that the Geiger counter's exposure at the Geiger counter was about 21 millirems, about 2 chest x-rays. Of course the Geiger counter did not inhale anything, no telling what a person outside would have integrated into their body.

      The DOE has a public exposure limit, from their operations, of 100 mR per year. So if the DOE where responsible for the event, they could do this about 4 more times without worrying about it.

      In the end, we don't have enough details to tell what the actual dosage was, but we wager there will be an upswing in miscarriages and birth defects within the next 9 months.

    2. Thank you for this explanation. I was guessing it might in a range similar to that.

      What about the question of how effectively this sort of plume might irradiate people indoors? I assume as long as they had their windows closed they would not be inhaling the particles (Is that a valid assumption?). But is external exposure likely to be cut down very much if the sources of it are kept outside and the people indoors?

    3. The key with any event is not to ingest the radioactive materials. Our assumption would be that the Geiger was indoors, so it is the best model we have of the indoor exposure. Given the way the radioactivity dropped when the wind picked up, it's a good guess that indoor contamination did not play a big role in the readings. To know more someone would have to swipe down the outside of the location where the reading took place.

      Probably the biggest indoor risk area would be the basement where heavier than air fallout might persist.

  2. Could the plume be from exploding DU munitions?

    1. Doubtful, that would leave some sort of residue and be persistent in the area.

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