Pissin' On The Roses: February 2020

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Emergency Action Message: A Blood Oxygen Meter Can Save You From Quarantine Infection

UPDATE 3/5/2020
THE CDC NOW REQUIRES ALL PERSONS WHO VISIT ANY HEALTHCARE FACILITY WITH FLU SYMPTOMS TO SELF QUARANTINE UNTIL ALL SYMPTOMS HAVE DISAPPEARED FOR ATLEAST 24 HOURS.

THIS IS BEING DONE BECAUSE THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF INFECTION AT HEALTH CARE FACILITIES, AND THERE IS A HIGH RISK THE VISTOR IS OR WILL BE INFECTED.

WE WOULD NOT VISIT ANY MEDICAL FACILITY UNLESS OUR BLOOD OXYGEN READINGS WERE BELOW 92%

Updated detail information at
https://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2020/03/cdc-says-doctors-visit-now-means-self.html
____________________________________________________________________

An Oximeter may literally save your life during the Coronavirus outbreak.

We purchased these two oximeters:

https://amzn.to/2Pwo7qH (Worked on Adults and a 3 year old child)

https://amzn.to/381dTox (Not for smaller fingers)

If you can't use Amazon, or need one RIGHT NOW, the best readily locally available pulse oximeter can be found at Walgreens, the back of the Walgreen's box is marked "OxiWatch C20"; typical price is $50

We prefer the Innovo Deluxe oximeter $25 from Amazon https://amzn.to/2Pwo7qH the extra data/ graphs available on this model allowed us to get accurate readings from both adults and children as young as 3 years old.

A prudent person with an oximeter and respiratory symptoms should expect:

1) Using telemedicine, your doctor will be able to rule out a suffocating COVID-19 pneumonia based on the Blood Oxygen level reading your oximeter provides, thusly saving you from a life threatening trip to a tent city full of infected persons

2) If your oximeter data confirms life threating hypoxia; you will be able to calculate your own risk / reward tolerance for seeking treatment in a crowded isolation ward

3) If treatment becomes unavailable, the oximeter will allow one to track whether their pneumonia is improving or deteriorating, and can provide feedback on the effectiveness of any at home treatments.

Persons who do not own an oximeter and seek treatment for cough + shortness of breath should expect:

1) You will be designated as a suspected COVID-19 case

2) You will be relocated for "treatment" with other COVID-19 infected individuals

3) If you didn't have the infection, you will have it after being concentrated with infected individuals

Things to know about Over The Counter (OTC) and Prescription (Rx) Oximeters:

1) Finger tip oximeters work by shining red and infrared light into your finger, they're painless.

2) Two research studies confirm OTC oximeters can reliably detect Hypoxia

3) OTC oximeters are most accurate when blood oxygen saturation is greater then 90%

4) An oximeter with Plethysmograph and Perfusion readings will allow you to achieve that most accurate blood oxygen readings (it helps gauge finger placement and reading quality)

5) Almost ALL oximeters are made in China

6) Do not expect oximeters to come back on the market until after all 1 Billion of China's population has had a chance to buy one.

7) Expect any OTC meters that become available after the outbreak to be of dubious quality

8) The research data SEEMS to indicate that "Beijing Choice" aka ChoiceMMed makes OTC units that rival Rx units in accuracy down to 70% blood oxygen saturation.

9) "Beijing Choice" aka ChoiceMMed makes both Rx and OTC oximeters, the only obvious difference between the units is labeling

10) A 2nd Chinese company "Contec" also makes a OTC oximeter that seemingly fared favorably in the research data; however, detail analysis of FDA's records indicate this model is based on a "Beijing Choice" aka ChoiceMMed design.

11) Good quality OTC oximeters often cost in the neighborhood of $15-$30

12) The US Military's Rx oximeter deployed on battlefield is the Nonin Onyx® II 9550 Military Fingertip Pulse Oximeter at $300 (if you can find it)

Discussion:

While we share the emergency coronavirus risk mitigations actions we have taken, please do not consider any of the above information to be a recommendation. Consider your own risk mitigation decisions based on your own circumstances.

If you purchase any of the items via the Amazon links above, we will receive a "finder's fee". We use those funds to offset the coronavirus risk mitigation costs we have already undertaken.

A simple to understand explanation of what Pulse Oximeter's measure and their relation to the coronavirus can be found on Dr. John Campbell's Youtube channel at
https://youtu.be/YyMiSUfZtyU

We also use Energizer AAA lithium batteries in our oximeters, because they are light weight, won't leak or corrode, and should power an oximeter for over 100 hours of continuous use. https://amzn.to/3aberJZ

Our other coronavirus risk mitigation actions can be found in our previous posting:
URGENT! USA Expects COVID-19 Outbreak Is LIKELY To Last 5 YEARS

Source Data:

The Accuracy of 6 Inexpensive Pulse Oximeters Not Cleared by the Food and Drug Administration: The Possible Global Public Health Implications

Clinical Interpretation of Peripheral Pulse Oximeters Labeled “Not for Medical Use”

FDA's 510(k) Premarket Notification

Onyx® II 9550 Military Fingertip Pulse Oximeter

Monday, February 24, 2020

URGENT! USA Expects COVID-19 Outbreak Is LIKELY To Last 5 YEARS

Two US Government Solicitations explicitly state:

"The Government is planning solicitations for immediate coronavirus response needs, as well as making assessments for longer term needs, likely up to 5 years, for these PPE items"

The expected 5 year run time of this COVID-19 pandemic is likely based on the time for the Surviving Human Population to achieve full immunity to this specific variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If this coronavirus mutates and evolves like the Common Cold Coronavirus we may face "Killer Colds" for much longer.

Our Risk Mitigation Actions:

Given that this Coronavirus outbreak will lead to heavy use of telemedicine we've added the following invaluable items to our purchase list:

1) Blood Oxygen Monitor
This may be the single most important item as it may indicate the severity of the lung infection and help differentiate between the Flu and Coronavirus, and a potential quarantine trip.

https://amzn.to/32ptD3O

2) Blood Pressure Cuff

https://amzn.to/2v1eOYV

Other items in our Risk Mitigation Matrix:

(1) For emergency and portable decontamination we are using PDI Prevantics skin wipes containing 3.15% chlorhexidine gluconate and 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (or similar products)
PDI Prevantics is both rapid and persistent for hours in its viricide capability

Skin Wipes 3% Chlorhexidine 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/38kbPsQ

(2) We are actively using Hibiclens 4% Chlorhexidine surgical scrub as a full strength lotion applied to the hands as a persistent long duration viricide. The Hibiclens Gallon Jug Refill is more cost effective, but we may also substitute the significantly less expensive and slightly weaker 2% veterinarian chlorhexidine soaps as conditions and shortages unfold. 2% is the minimum strength we would use.

Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 4oz
https://amzn.to/37bRnsJ
Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 16oz
https://amzn.to/39n3Tah
Hibiclens Gallon Jug
https://amzn.to/39pbw06
Chlorhexidine 2%
https://amzn.to/2Sht60d

(3) We are using Germ-X Advanced 70% Ethanol hand sanitizer, as an inexpensive but very effective quick acting yet unfortunately short lived viricide.

GERM- X Advanced Hand Sanitizer 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/378qXYY

(4) We are also using Lysol-to-go 1 oz spray cans to disinfect shopping carts handles, public restrooms, etc.

Lysol-to-go 1oz Disinfectant Spray
https://amzn.to/2vhCo3p

5) Garbage bags:

Don't expect the garbage trucks to roll regularly during a quarantine. Don't be caught short of garbage bags

Amazon Garbage Bag Link
https://amzn.to/2S4rKFQ

6) Toilet Paper

Toilet Paper will run out, and you don't want to be out in public looking and fighting for it.

Amazon Toilet Paper Link
https://amzn.to/387NJBr

7) Small Gas Cans

Unlike China, most Americans have to drive to get supplies. Don't expect gas stations to be open, and expect the ones that are open to be crowded. That last thing you want to do is increase your coronavirus exposure chances by making unnecessary gasoline stops.

Unfortunately, most modern American gas cans are now dangerous as all heck thanks to California and their friends in the Federal Government. Metal cans are preferable over plastic, and if it doesn't have a long nozzle (preferably flexible) you wont be able to use it to fill your cars gas tank.

NOTE: Several States require gasoline cans to be red and to say gasoline on them. Where possible the use of 100% gasoline is preferable to 10% Ethanol formulations for storage purposes.

Red Metal 10L
https://amzn.to/2H29ruY

Red Metal 20L
https://amzn.to/38h01aZ

Red Plastic 2 Gallon
https://amzn.to/2vYFp95

Red Plastic Flexible Nozzle 5 Gallon
https://amzn.to/2veYNxW

Green Explosafe Gas Can 5L (there is no safer way to transport or store fuel)
https://amzn.to/2vtpLC4

Outside of America, we prefer Valpro / Wavian Explo-Safe gas cans.
https://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2020/02/quarantine-supplies-you-wont-realize.html

Fuel Stabilizer:

Gas does not have a long shelf life, especially in plastic gas cans.

STA-BIL MARINE FORMULA ETHANOL TREATMENT 8 OZ
https://amzn.to/2H3ecUY

8) Car Parts and More

Almost all car parts and maintenance items are made in China, those factories are already closed. With an outbreak in the USA expect car dealerships and local garages to be shutdown for lack of parts and for fear of being infected.

We bought everything we thought we might need through FALL of 2020
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM

Many of these items may yet still be available at your local stores.

If you buy through any of the Amazon links, we will get a commission. We did NOT include links to purchase cough medicine based on reports that China was tracking who purchased cough medicine and such tracking might be expected in the USA.

Our Amazon Link
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM

Source Links and Data:

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/1bef2d235b5247eba9493b00509d55da/view?keywords=covid&sort=-relevance&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/1b5ee8054a2f4d198f99eec31364b747/view?keywords=covid&sort=-relevance&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

CDC Wants You To Tie A T-Shirt Over Your Face (NOT A JOKE)

CDC Contracting With Poison Control Centers and 2-1-1 to Create Public 'Phone-In' Bird Flu Triage Centers

Thursday, February 20, 2020

CDC's Coronavirus Plan Literally Means Tying A T-Shirt Over Your Face

The CDC is looking for sources who can turn T-Shirts into coronavirus face masks for the general public to use during the COVID19 pandemic. Unfortunately its not a joke, but using such a T-Shirt mask would be because as soon as it is dampened from your breath the fibers will relax and any minimal protection it offered dry will disappear.

The three things to note are:

1) CDC's plan shows of how badly they see this pandemic turning out

2) Its impossible to risk mitigate effectively after the Herd stampedes the supply chain

3) The Herd is still unaware that long lasting skin sanitizers exist.

Emergency Risk Mitigation Actions We Have Taken.

Disclosures

(1) Our actions are focused on risk mitigation, based on available current knowledge of viricides and the potential impacts of the Wuhan Coronavirus.

(2) We do not make recommendations as to what other people should do or buy; we only offer insight to the things we are actually doing and spending money on.

(3) If you use the links above to purchase these item we will receive monetary compensation from Amazon, which in turn will help us buy more of these items.

If you wish to donated directly to POTRBLOG (and only if you can afford to do so) feel free to use the donate button below :

Source data and links:

CDC T-Shirt Mask Sources Sought

Simple T-Shirt Mask

DEFCON 1 HAWAII: 99% Probability On Going Communal Spread Is Underway In Hawaii

Sunday, February 16, 2020

DEFCON 1 HAWAII: 99% Probability On Going Communal Spread Is Underway In Hawaii

Synopsis:

High quality data from Los Alamos National Labs [LANL] indicates there is a 99% probability a Japanese tourist in Hawaii acquired his SARS-CoV-2 aka COVID19 infection during the nearly 2 week period he was in Hawaii on vacation. (source links and raw data are at the end of this post)

Given the high probability (and uncertainty on how rapidly it may spread in Hawaii's climate) combined with the high societal impact, prudent risk mitigation MAY indicate that now is the time to

1) Either, hunker down and gather supplies while it is still possible and economical to do so

2) Or, escape / evacuate the islands while it is still possible.

Analysis of Symptom Onset date vs Infection Date:

1) He was in Maui for 8 days from Jan 27 to Feb 3

2) He was in Oahu for 5 days from Feb 3 to Feb 7

3) Symptom onset was Feb 5th - Feb 6th, based on News Reports

4) Hospitalization date was Feb 8th, In Japan with a 102F fever

5) LANL data reports initial exposure to symptom onset is 4.2 days

6) LANL data indicates 99.9% of cases have symptom onset within 11 days of infection

7) LANL data indicates 99.2% of victims have symptom onset within 10 days of infection

8) LANL data indicates 98.5% of victims have symptom onset within 9 days of infection

9) The Japanese victim had symptom onset on day 10 of his Hawaii vacation [max range day 9-11]

10) Based on Infection vs Onset data there is a 99% to 99.9% probability he was infected in Hawaii

Risk Mitigation Discussion:

It is clear with near certainty that the Japanese tourist was infected with Coronavirus during his vacation in Hawaii. That infection indicates that previously undetected community spread of the SARS-CoV2 aka COVID19 virus was ongoing in Hawaii at minimum during late January and early February. The lowest bound for the 1st infection in Hawaii would probably be 12/31/19.

The LANL analysis indicated that 'in China it is estimated that early in the epidemic the number of infected individuals doubled every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6'

IF those conditions hold true in Hawaii, and making the conservative assumption that the Japanese tourist was infected by Patient Zero, the LANL data would indicated that as of Valentine's Day there would have been approximately 48 to 213 undetected SARS-CoV2 cases in Hawaii. Whether those replication numbers apply in Hawaii's climate is uncertain, but given the certainty of community infection and the societal impacts of COVID-19 infection. I can only draw the conclusion that if I was in Hawaii

1) I would either immediately hunker down and accumulate needed supplies while such actions were still viable.

2) Or, I would evacuate the Islands while there was still capability to do so.

If Hawaii's Department of Public Health takes zero action, LANL's data indicates there will be over 1 million cases by mid-March.

Data Strength and Weaknesses:

Strengths:

1) Credibility of Los Alamos National Laboratory

2) Highest Quality Raw Data Available

3) Raw data is from Individuals who 'had all traveled to Wuhan a short time preceding symptoms onset. Since these individuals were the first cases detected in the provinces outside of Wuhan, it is likely that the infection occurred during their recent stay in Wuhan'

Weaknesses:

1) While the infection / onset data is very high quality, it is drawn from a pool of only 24 people.

2) Hawaii is not China, hence COVID19's Reproduction number R0 may be lower and rates of spread may be different.

Mainland Emergency Risk Mitigation Actions We Have Taken.

(1) For emergency and portable decontamination we are using PDI Prevantics skin wipes containing 3.15% chlorhexidine gluconate and 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (or similar products)
PDI Prevantics is both rapid and persistent for hours in its viricide capability

Skin Wipes 3% Chlorhexidine 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/38kbPsQ

(2) We are actively using Hibiclens 4% Chlorhexidine surgical scrub as a full strength lotion applied to the hands as a persistent long duration viricide. The Hibiclens Gallon Jug Refill is more cost effective, but we may also substitute the significantly less expensive and slightly weaker 2% veterinarian chlorhexidine soaps as conditions and shortages unfold. 2% is the minimum strength we would use.

Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 4oz
https://amzn.to/37bRnsJ
Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 16oz
https://amzn.to/39n3Tah
Hibiclens Gallon Jug
https://amzn.to/39pbw06
Chlorhexidine 2%
https://amzn.to/2Sht60d

(3) We are using Germ-X Advanced 70% Ethanol hand sanitizer, as an inexpensive but very effective quick acting yet unfortunately short lived viricide.

GERM- X Advanced Hand Sanitizer 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/378qXYY

(4) We are also using Lysol-to-go 1 oz spray cans to disinfect shopping carts handles, public restrooms, etc.

Lysol-to-go 1oz Disinfectant Spray
https://amzn.to/2vhCo3p

5) Garbage bags:

Don't expect the garbage trucks to roll regularly during a quarantine. Don't be caught short of garbage bags

Amazon Garbage Bag Link
https://amzn.to/2S4rKFQ

6) Toilet Paper

Toilet Paper will run out, and you don't want to be out in public looking and fighting for it.

Amazon Toilet Paper Link
https://amzn.to/387NJBr

7) Small Gas Cans

Unlike China, most Americans have to drive to get supplies. Don't expect gas stations to be open, and expect the ones that are open to be crowded. That last thing you want to do is increase your coronavirus exposure chances by making unnecessary gasoline stops.

Unfortunately, most modern American gas cans are now dangerous as all heck thanks to California and their friends in the Federal Government. Metal cans are preferable over plastic, and if it doesn't have a long nozzle (preferably flexible) you wont be able to use it to fill your cars gas tank.

NOTE: Several States require gasoline cans to be red and to say gasoline on them. Where possible the use of 100% gasoline is preferable to 10% Ethanol formulations for storage purposes.

Red Metal 10L
https://amzn.to/2H29ruY

Red Metal 20L
https://amzn.to/38h01aZ

Red Plastic 2 Gallon
https://amzn.to/2vYFp95

Red Plastic Flexible Nozzle 5 Gallon
https://amzn.to/2veYNxW

Green Explosafe Gas Can 5L (there is no safer way to transport or store fuel)
https://amzn.to/2vtpLC4

Outside of America, we prefer Valpro / Wavian Explo-Safe gas cans.
https://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2020/02/quarantine-supplies-you-wont-realize.html

Fuel Stabilizer:

Gas does not have a long shelf life, especially in plastic gas cans.

STA-BIL MARINE FORMULA ETHANOL TREATMENT 8 OZ
https://amzn.to/2H3ecUY

8) Car Parts and More

Almost all car parts and maintenance items are made in China, those factories are already closed. With an outbreak in the USA expect car dealerships and local garages to be shutdown for lack of parts and for fear of being infected.

We bought everything we thought we might need through FALL of 2020
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM

Many of these items may yet still be available at your local stores.

If you buy through any of the Amazon links, we will get a commission. We did NOT include links to purchase cough medicine based on reports that China was tracking who purchased cough medicine and such tracking might be expected in the USA.

Our Amazon Link
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM

Source Links and Data:

Hat tip to Johann Müller @JMuller_5050 for pointing us to this LANL paper there by allowing us to update our previous analysis with better data:

[ABSTRACT], 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

[Full Citation] 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

Supplementary Materials for “The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated"

Couple Diagnosed with Coronavirus After Returning to Japan From Hawaiian Vacation

BREAKING: Japan Resident with Coronavirus was on Maui and O‘ahu

Friday, February 14, 2020

High Probability That Japanese Man Was Infected In Hawaii, Which Means Summer Weather Infections Are Also Highly Probable

UPDATE 2/16/20

Better data from Los Alamos National Laboratory puts the probability that the Japanese tourist acquired his CoranaVirus infection in Hawaii at 99 to 99.9%

see

DEFCON 1 HAWAII: 99% Probability On Going Communal Spread Is Underway In Hawaii

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on a EXTREEMLY CONSERVATIVE uniform data fit of COVID-19 Coronavirus incubation data taken from 1099 infected Chinese patients reported as having a 3 day Median and 0-24 day range

Analysis:

1) There is a 52% probability the Japanese man acquired his infection in Oahu, Hawaii

2) There is a 57% probability that the Japanese man acquired his infection in Maui, Hawaii

3) Overall there is an overall 67% probability that his infection was acquired in Hawaii.