Based On NIH's Ebola Immunology Work Shop: Ebola Vaccines Are An Expensive and Near Worthless Joke

After watching the full 8 hours of the "Immunology of Protection from Ebola Virus Infection" workshop (sponsored by the NIAID/NIH, FDA, BARDA, DoD, and CDC) it is abundantly clear that the Ebola vaccine efforts are sadly an expensive and near worthless joke. We say this because at best, if the vaccine designs are perfect, they will only protect those who have been exposed to the most minuscule amounts of Ebola.

The vaccine developers are clear that the proposed vaccines will be utterly overwhelmed if the person is exposed to anything more than a needle prick's worth of virus. And even at that tiny amount, the vaccine researchers are complaining that its too much virus; they want 1/100 of a needle prick's worth of virus, at maximum, to be the challenge standard for the vaccine.

As such, the vaccines in development are not to protect the public; at best, they are designed to offer a modicum of protection to Ebola researchers who may develop small holes in their spacesuits as they are working in the their Bio Safety Level 4 Laboratories. These vaccines would likely NOT have protected either of the Dallas nurses who were infected with Ebola in the course of treating Thomas Duncan.

The researchers at the conference are aware of the fact that these vaccines will offer no real individual protection. In fact it was indicated at the conference that if all goes well and the vaccine is given to a large enough segment of the public, that maybe the vaccines might slightly reduce the virus reproduction number, ie every infected person only makes 2 other people sick instead of 3.

Frankly thats a very large safety gamble to force an experimental vaccine on the population for the outside possibility that it might ever so slightly reduce the reproduction number of the virus. Its pretty clear now why the Government has declared that no one working on the vaccines ,or forcing those vaccines on the public can be held civilly or criminally liable for their work.

At this point, its becoming very clear that the greatest return on research dollar investment is on post exposure treatment with Antibodies and Antivirals; the vaccine work is a joke.

Sources:

Immunology of Protection from Ebola Virus Infection A workshop sponsored by the NIAID/NIH, FDA, BARDA, DoD, and CDC


ACTION: Notice of Declaration under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act

Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood Can Kill 500,000 People

NIH: Airborne Ebola Infectious Down To Extinction Levels

CDC Doubles Estimate: Says 3,400 US Airline Passengers Will Sit Within 3 Feet Of An Ebola Patient Next Year

On December 12 the US Centers for Disease Control reported to the Office Management and Budget [OMB] that CDC expects to interview 3,400 US commercial airline passengers that were seated within 3 feet of an Ebola patient.

"so that CDC can better assess the risk to individuals who may have been exposed to a confirmed case of Ebola while traveling to or within the United States"

Using the conservative estimate that 8 airline passengers are seated within the 3 foot zone set out by the CDC, the CDC is expecting 425 actively infected Ebola patients to fly into the USA next year. We believe the Winter New Year time frame is the high risk period for these entries.


Just as CDC's short sighted Ebola risk assessment and PPE direction lead to the infections of two nurses in the Thomas Duncan Ebola case, the CDC has taken no steps to mitigate the Department of Defense's concern that Winter weather may facilitate a super flu like airborne spread of Ebola. As such, the CDC is counting on Ebola to only spread as it does in warm weather, ie close contact with the VERY sick.


Apparently even the fact that CDC just DOUBLED the number of expected Ebola exposures to US flyers is not enough to raise their concerns.  In November the CDC had informed OMB that they expected to interview 1,700 commercial airline passengers, now exactly 1 month later CDC has doubled the number to 3,400 directly exposed airline passengers.


The CDC expects to interview these 3,400 people at 20 minutes each. CDC also informed OMB that CDC expects the 50,000 exposed people who were on these flights but seated further than 3 feet away from the Ebola patient, to call the CDC and be read a "script".

"this script assesses the risk of a plan passenger who was not in the immediate vicinity of the Ebola patient but still has concerns about the level of exposure and risk of contracting the virus."

Sources:

CDC December OMB Ebola emergency notice

CDC November OMB Ebola emergency notice

Department of Defense Says EBOLA IS "AEROSTABLE"; Fears Persistent Sewer System Contagion

US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability, Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne

Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood Can Kill 500,000 People

CDC Says It Will Actively Monitor 65,250 Ebola Exposed Travelers Entering The USA Per Year

CDC Says It Will Actively Monitor 65,250 Ebola Exposed Travelers Entering The USA Per Year

The CDC has notified the Office of Management and Budget that CDC expects to actively monitor 65,250 at risk Ebola travelers entering the USA per year. Obviously CDC came to this number by counting the number of travelers that have already entered the USA in the last 3 months and projecting it out to 12 months.

Reverse engineering CDC's projection, 16,313 Ebola exposed travelers have entered the USA since the Ebola outbreak began. Clearly such a large number of potentially Ebola infected travelers undergoing active monitoring for 21 days creates a huge risk and manpower requirement. To that end, CDC is creating a daily robo-call system to contact these people (in both French and English) everyday for 21 days.

"CDC is also requesting the incorporation of a telephonic, automated survey administered either through Interactive Voice Response (IVR) phone system which asks travelers if they have developed a fever or any other symptoms potentially indicative of Ebola exposure (OMB Control No 0920-1034). This system is used to assist states in actively monitoring those travelers from Ebola affected countries for 21 days after arrival. The additional burden requested for the use of the IVR system is 91,350 hours."

No matter which way CDC attempts to cut it, the Ebola response is currently overwhelming the CDC. Automating aspects of the response may serve to lessen some of that burden, but it comes at the cost of reduced quality and increased risk as as anyone who has ever had to press 1 to hold for a human on an automated voice service system knows,

Sources:

https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/12/02/2014-28232/proposed-data-collections-submitted-for-public-comment-and-recommendations

Company Near Ferguson Riots Awarded Contract To Urgently Deploy Their Ebola Transport Isolation System

A Saint Louis company within rioting distance of the Ferguson unrest has just won a two million dollar urgent contract to urgently deploy a palletized airborne isolation chamber capable of holding 12 Ebola patients for military transport. The company has been developing the product as a follow on to the Airborne Biological Containment System they developed for Phoenix Air Group. Several aspects of the contract including who the DoD has tasked with handling these Ebola evacuations have been redacted, but its safe to guess Phoenix Air Group is involved.

"The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) contracting activity proposes to procure, without using full and open competition, the development and validation testing of a Transport Isolation System (TIS) to be used for the safe evacuation of Ebola-exposed or Ebola-infected personnel from affected areas. DTRA intends to award a Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF) letter contract to Production Products Manufacturing and Sales Co., Inc. (PPStL) of St. Louis, Missouri. The contract is expected to be approximately four and a half months in duration, with a not-to-exceed (NTE) price of $2,380,505.76"

"Open and competitive channels of acquisition are not suitable in this case due to the urgent national need to rapidly develop the TIS for immediate use in support of the Ebola outbreak"

Given the urgent need spelled out in the contract and PPStL's proximity to the Ferguson, Mike Brown protesters may just have a new venue to show their true colors.

Sources:

https://www.fbo.gov/utils/view?id=a38d6dea0dc3fa0f41b52195bd715db9