Based on Obama's attempt to disrupt the US commercial supply of M855 ammunition, we expect that US / NATO infantry weapons which use M855 ammunition will soon start flowing into the Ukraine and surrounding former Soviet States.
Ukraine needs NATO caliber rifles as it likely faces a shortage of ammunition for its unique late Soviet era infantry rifle. Last year in that regard, Obama banned the US importation of the Soviet 7N6 5.45x39.5 round in order to shore up in theater Soviet caliber ammo supplies for Ukraine.
Since then, Ukraine has had its ammunition factories fall to the Novorussia rebels. And, the supply of Soviet ammo which had been redirected away from US consumers must now be rapidly decreasing. Unfortunately for the Ukraine, only Russia has massive capability to cost effectively supply their unique Soviet rifle ammunition needs.
Given that situation, it seems that the time now has come for America to stealthily shore up the supply of NATO military M855 ball ammo in Eastern Europe for use in those M16's we expect to see start showing up in the Ukraine. As such, Obama's likely illegal reclassification of M855 ammo as "armor piercing" will immediately stop all shipments of such ammo departing from European docks to the USA; and thusly quietly shore up needed NATO caliber ammo supplies in Eastern Europe.
Obviously if this is the vignette behind the M855 US consumer ammo ban, it seems clear that DoD sees a greater risk of expanded armed conflict in Eastern Europe than is currently being let on, and wants to quietly prepare for such conflict
Alternatively its possible that the M855 ban is only driven by Obama's hatred of an armed American populace; in which case, all those M16's won't be showing up in Ukraine any time soon. That said, we expect M855 fed rifles to appear on Russia's borders soon.
More detail and analysis to follow
Sources:
http://www.atf.gov/sites/default/files/assets/Library/Notices/atf_framework_for_determining_whether_certain_projectiles_are_primarily_intended_for_sporting_purposes.pdf
