The data and methodology shown is how I would have calculated my lung cancer risk from the Fukushima Plutonium particles detected in California's San Francisco Bay Area air by EPA’s RADNET from 3/15/11 to 3/18/11. How you apply the information to yourself is your own personal decision. However, once having seen the data and calculations, I believe it would be in your own personal best interests to contact your local, state, and federal politicians and petition them to provide detail risk assessments for your own situation. Assurances that everything is safe and okay mean nothing without facts and data.
My calculations indicate that had I been in San Francisco California from March 15th - 18th, 2011 approximately 75 million atoms of Plutonium 239 would have entered my lungs during that 96 hour period. My calculations indicate that based on the 2008 population of the San Francisco Bay Area of California, approximately 482 individuals in San Francisco would have had an Alpha particle released in their lungs during that 96 hour time period. If the worst case fears of Plutonium toxicity are to be believed, 482 people in San Francisco will develop lung cancer from that single 96 hour exposure to airborne Fukushima Plutonium.
Many of the assumptions and groundrules I have used are obvious from the calculations. However, some assumptions are more debatable than others, and they deserve closer scrutiny in your own risk assessment.
(1) A 100% cancer rate from a single in-lung release of an Alpha particle from Plutonium. If this rate is to be believed, Plutonium may be the single most deadly thing on the planet. I left the rate at 100% so that it would be easy for others to recalculate their own risk based on their own research.
(2) The lung cancer calculation is based on a breath of 1 second duration in which every Plutonium atom that enters the lung also leaves the lung. If one assumes that the Plutonium will remain in the lung, the cancer rates will greatly increase.
(3) An atom of Plutonium releasing an Alpha particle in the Lung creates damage without respect to its exact location in the Lung space.
(4) Lung cancers resulting from the radioactive decay products of Plutonium were NOT directly examined; chemically induced cancers were also not directly examined.
(5) The calculations use an Air Sample Multiplier. No additional multiplication of the air sample was required because the dates of the air sampling span a time period in which it was physical possible for Plutonium to have traveled from Japan to California.
(6) The Plutonium fallout was a four day / 96 hour duration non-reoccurring event.
(7) The fact that the EPA reported negative Curie values for Plutonium 238 is not indicative of under reporting the threat. A negative value is reported when the quantity of Plutonium found is less than an expected baseline value.
Plutonium Atoms Inhaled per Person in San Francisco California from 3/15/11 to 3/18/11
RADNET Detection Air Sampling Conversion factor Conversion factor Specific Activity Calculated Value Atomic Weight Calculated Value Avogadro's Number Calculated Value Breathing Rate Constant Calculated Total Four Day Lung Exposure
Radionuclide pCi/m^3 multiplier pCi/Ci Curies/gram grams/m^3 grams/mol mols/m^3 atoms/mol atoms/m^3 m^3/day Plutonium Atoms
Plutonium 239 0.0000065 1 1E+12 0.063 1.03175E-16 239.0521634 4.31599E-19 6.02E+23 2.60E+05 72 74,828,856
Potential San Francisco California Lung Cancers
from the calculated 3/15/11 to 3/18/11 Plutonium Exposure
RADNET Detection Air Sampling Conversion factor Individual Breathing Rate Individual Plutonium Inhalation Rate Disintegration Conversion Factor Individual Lung Exposure Time Alpha's exposed to Population San Francisco California Population Per Breath Alpha Exposure Population Per Day Alpha Exposure Single Alpha exposure to Lung Cancer Conversion Lung Cancers from Time Period
Radionuclide pCi/m^3 multiplier m^3/sec pCi/sec Alpha's per second per pCi Seconds Count People People People Percentage People
Plutonium 239 0.0000065 1 0.000833333 5.41667E-09 0.037 1 2.00417E-10 6,960,079 0.001394916 120.520728 100% 482.1