Friday, October 17, 2014

CDC Releases Epidemiological Analysis of Dr Brantly & Writebol Ebola Transmission In Africa- Says Aerosol To Us

The CDC has released their epidemiological investigation of how Dr Brantly and Nancy Writebol became infected with Ebola while in Liberia. Basically CDC could find no transmission chain among the 5 people in that Ebola cluster.

CDC's analysis is that nothing out of the ordinary happened, ie nothing directly points to airborne.
Of course nothing points to contact transmission either, butCDC assumses direct contact caused this Ebola cluster. Our suspicion has been that Brantly & Writebol became infected as Writebol sprayed Brantly with Clorox water; that spraying action aerosolized the contamination on Brantly's protective suit.


Sources:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6341a3.htm?s_cid=mm641a3_w


Thursday, October 16, 2014

National Institutes of Health Orders a One Year Stockpile of "EMERGENCY DISASTER EVENT PREPARATION FOR PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT"


The National Institutes of Health [NIH] just placed a solicitation  to stockpile an entire year's worth of Personal Protective Equipment [PPE] to support eight agencies inside of NIH. They are placing the massive order in case there is a disruption in supply of medical goods like goggles, gloves, gowns, masks, spacesuits.

The NIH's rationale is that the animal testing they are doing is so vitally important that no disruption in supplies can be risked. Apparently the disruption in PPE supply is expect to last at least one full year, and they have an option to carry it on for four more years.

"This Sources Sought Notice has been posted to establish, provide, and maintain a laboratory animal personnel protective equipment (PPE) resource to ensure the accessibility and availability of essential supplies throughout an emergency/disaster, government shutdown, or any other interruption of regular deliveries. These supplies support irreplaceable multidisciplinary animal research, which is critical to the mission of eight institutes at the National Institutes of Health."

 "During emergency/disaster events, the normal supply and distribution channels will most likely be unavailable/or protracted due to the impact of the emergency and the rush of immediate orders. Our program's disaster plan takes these factors into account; it is therefore our intention is to establish an offsite source of critical supplies with an established, laboratory animal PPE vendor with a proven track record of providing quality products and services. As outlined in our emergency plan it is the intention of our program to be able to house up to a one year's supply of PPE products with a local vendor within a 90 mile radius of NIH in Bethesda, Maryland."

A few near term risks that potential could make PPE unavailable for an entire year are:

1) EBOLA
2) H7N9 BirdFlu
3) MERS-CoV

The POTRBLOG team believes that this contract clearly indicates that the Government expects a protracted shortage of medical PPE, and that the window of opportunity for individuals to purchase needed PPE at reasonable prices is now at a close.

Sources:

Solicitation Number: HHS-NIH-OD-OLAO-SBSS-15-001

Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood Can Kill 500,000 People

US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability, Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne


Ebola Bodily Fluids Readily Weaponizable Using An Ultrasonic Humidifier

Ebola Emergency ZMAPP Production Rates & Costs


CDC's "Lesser Of Evils" Double Standard On Health Care Worker Protection Indicates They Expect a Large Ebola Outbreak In USA


CDC Warns Hospitals On EBOLA "CONTAMINATED AIR" and Directs use of "Airborne Infection Isolation Room"s


Inhalation Ebola: Governments Ready For World War Ebola


CDC Sees AIRBORNE EBOLA Transmission, Issues Guidance For Aircraft Flight Crews, Cleaning & Cargo Crews


 CDC is already evacuating DOUBLE the number of expected Ebola infected personnel at a rate of 7 doctors per month



Friday, October 10, 2014

US Military Already Having Katrina Like Logistics Issues With Ebola "Operation United Assistance"

The headline on Drudge today is MILITARY ARRIVES IN HOT ZONE the story is mostly a puff piece devoid of any useful content. The truth of the matter is that the US Military's capability to perform this sort of a mission is merely a shadow of what it once was, it's as if they learned nothing from Hurricane Katrina.

The Department of Defense is in such poor shape logistically that they had to place an emergency solicitation seeking companies in Europe to rent them Rough Terrain forklifts. Its the functional equivalent of trying rent tanks on the open market after the war has started.

This DoD photo from Liberia captures one of the few military fork trucks available working with one of the rental fork trucks.




The sad state of affairs is that DoD actually brags about its minuscule capability in one of their own press releases, trumpeting the fact that they only have one National Guard unit ( "the only unit of its kind") with such capability.

Frankly it is shocking that DoD has let itself degrade to this point. Certainly fork trucks aren't as sexy as aircraft or tanks, but a military runs on logistics and DoD used to have the brains to know that. Fork trucks are often the primary constraint in any such sort of operation, either military or commercial. Its a lack of $10K fork trucks that keeps Billions of dollars of aircraft and goods clogged up on airfields.

Of course the USA is not alone in this mess; the reason the Australians aren't responding to Western Africa is that they remember their own Fork Truck short comings when they tried to respond to West Timor in the 1990's. The only thing more militarily emasculating then barely being able to get your troops somewhere overseas, is not being able to get them back.

Of course, this sorry state of affairs doesn't just end with fork trucks. The US Military no longer has the smaller remote strip aircraft it needs to move cargo and personnel around deep woods Africa. The military gave those planes away, many to smoke jumper fire fighter units across the country.

So what does the does the Government do when it realizes it needs back the planes it gave to Smoke Jumper units? The answer is convoluted but simple, the Government mobilizes Alaskan Smoke Jumper Units to respond to West Africa via DART (Disaster Assistance Response Team). The end result is a Command and Control Cluster Mess with little to zero insightful press coverage.

Sources:

Rough Terrain Container Handler required immediately for Ebola support Solicitation Number: SP3300-15-SS-7000

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-planes-arrive-in-liberia-epicenter-of-ebola-outbreak/

http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/504250/kentucky-ang-establishes-cargo-hub-in-senegal-for-ebola-response.aspx

USAID DART: Alaska SmokeJumpers Deploying to Liberia Ebola Crisis


Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood Can Kill 500,000 People


Fighting Ebola: why Australia can't send troops


Thursday, October 9, 2014

US Government Seeks To Award You $100K to $1Million For Your Ideas To Fight Ebola

USAID put out a Challenge solicitation today seeking ideas to help in the fight against Ebola; the award amount is $100,000 to $1,000,000.

Submissions maybe made to:

Email: EbolaEOI@usaid.gov  prior to October 20th
or
ebolagrandchallenge.net after October 20th


Solutions Sought:

For the purposes of this Addendum USAID and partners specifically seek solutions that address the two focus areas below.2
1) STRENGTHEN HEALTHCARE CAPACITIES:

 Approaches to enhance the protective equipment, care setting and tools used in the field to empower and protect healthcare workers
• Personal Protective Equipment (PPE): Developing, testing, and scaling entirely novel PPE or modifications to current PPE that address issues of heat stress and comfort for healthcare workers
• Care Setting: Accelerating the development and scale-up of approaches to enhance the physical and procedural care environment relating to heat stress, comfort and the safety of healthcare workers and patients
• Health Care Worker Tools: Accelerating the development and scale of tools that improve the delivery of care to patients (e.g. rapid, point of care diagnostics or more efficient ways of moving samples and communicating results back to health care workers quickly)

2) CARE-SEEKING:
Approaches that ensure communities receive and respond to timely, accurate, and actionable information about Ebola prevention and treatment

• Developing and scaling behavior change approaches to encourage— and dispel myths and misconceptions that discourage—care-seeking or interacting with health care authorities
• Improved information management and communication to the community on availability of beds in community care centers or emergency treatment facilities

Sources:


The USAID Development Innovation Accelerator BAA for Fighting Ebola: A Grand Challenge for Development

https://www.fbo.gov/utils/view?id=7f57615dc2df7808cfa462ea0c04ded0

https://www.fbo.gov/utils/view?id=5e5759f2e6d0640c2987fd7610f2f984

Thursday, October 2, 2014

MAX ALERT: Carolina Hospital Connected To Texas Ebola Victim's Sister Readies 19 Ebola Beds

A Carolina hospital connected to the sister of the Texas Ebola victim is spooling up 19 Ebola Beds

  "At Carolinas Medical Center (CMC), they have 19 beds set aside in case they have to treat Ebola patients" 

Whats not being reported is that Texas Ebola victim Thomas Duncan's sister worked for Carolina Healthcare Systems in Charlotte as a health care worker. This information according to her LinkedIn page and also by photos from her Facebook page.

What her current connection is to Carolina is not completely understood, in fact it appears she may be currently working for the Texas Hospital where her brother is located. But, the actions of the Carolina Medical Center may indicate that person there did have had some sort of contact with the Texas Ebola patient.





Sources:

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/26692910/north-and-south-carolina-hospitals-prepare-for-ebola-threat

http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/area-hospitals-prepare-potential-ebola-cases/nhZWw/

MAXIMUM ALERT: DALLAS EBOLA VICTIM MOST LIKELY ACQUIRED HIS INFECTION ON HIS FLIGHT

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

MAXIMUM ALERT: DALLAS EBOLA VICTIM MOST LIKELY ACQUIRED HIS INFECTION ON HIS FLIGHT


CDC's time line of the Dallas Ebola victim's flight date and symptom onset date indicates a greater than 50% probability that the Dallas Ebola victim ACQUIRED HIS INFECTION DURING HIS FLIGHT.

Per the Center For Disease Control's very own Ebola simulation model, 50% of all Ebola infections develop symptoms five and a half days after infection. Given that the Dallas victim's symptom onset occurred within 6 days of his Liberian departure flight; it is most likely that he/she was infected on that flight by someone else on that flight who was actively shedding Ebola virus.

Since the Dallas victim is most likely a secondary infection, patient zero from that flight is still on the loose and more victims are to follow in the near term. The situation is potentially catastrophic because of the massive number of potential secondary victims who have no African travel history and are likely to not attract attention in any Emergency room until massive hemorrhaging has started.

CDC Ebola Symptom Onset Distribution Days After Infection


DALLAS EBOLA Victim Time Line- HAT/TIP to the NYTIMES




Sources:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_x

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/01/health/airline-passenger-with-ebola-is-under-treatment-in-dallas.html?smid=tw-share

http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/s930-ebola-confirmed-case.html


Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood Can Kill 500,000 People


US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability, Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne


http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0041918

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997182/

http://vet.sagepub.com/content/50/3/514.full

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4113787/

Ebola Bodily Fluids Readily Weaponizable Using An Ultrasonic Humidifier


Ebola Emergency ZMAPP Production Rates & Costs


CDC's "Lesser Of Evils" Double Standard On Health Care Worker Protection Indicates They Expect a Large Ebola Outbreak In USA


CDC Warns Hospitals On EBOLA "CONTAMINATED AIR" and Directs use of "Airborne Infection Isolation Room"s


Inhalation Ebola: Governments Ready For World War Ebola


CDC Sees AIRBORNE EBOLA Transmission, Issues Guidance For Aircraft Flight Crews, Cleaning & Cargo Crews


 CDC is already evacuating DOUBLE the number of expected Ebola infected personnel at a rate of 7 doctors per month



Monday, September 29, 2014

MAX ALERT Joplin Missouri: Nursing Student From Congo Dies Showing Respiratory Symptoms

Big hat tip to   for alerting us to this news out of Joplin Missouri.

 Over the weekend in Joplin, Missouri, a nursing student from the Congo died after he was spotted having respiratory symptoms while out on a walk. The local coroner attributes the death to cardiac arrest. The coroner is quoted as saying he "understood the victim had been in the U.S. long enough to have passed the incubation period for the disease"

Unfortunately the Coroner's statement has an aire of uncertainty about it. Moreover we also find Coroner's public Linkedin profile to be concerning as the is seems to indicate zero medical training, and that his prior employment was as county Sheriff.

We believe it would be wise for Public Health officials to start contact tracing on the victim to determine what the true exposure risk.

Did he have contact with other International students from Ebola infected areas? 

As a nursing student was he in any way involved in medical care in Ebola infected areas?


Hopefully the Coroner is correct in his diagnosis, but given the alignment of risk factors and the dangerous impact of a positive Ebola case,  further DETAILED investigation is needed to rule out Ebola and potentially even Enterovirus 68.

Sources:


http://www.joplinglobe.com/news/article_6e3a8d0c-484e-11e4-bebb-fb3f783dbd69.html


Mark Bridges coroner at newton county,mo