All Public Ebola Growth Models Are Wrong, And NONE Are Useful To The Public

UPDATE: 11/14/14
CDC now admits

"The numbers of cases projected, based on an exponential growth model that used early epidemic trends and assumed no effective interventions, did not materialize"

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm63e1114a2.htm?s_cid=mm63e1114a2_x

UPDATE: 10/20/14 
Its interesting to note that the Johns Hopkins Center of Advanced Modeling agrees with our analysis and Ebola modeling curve
http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4511957/johnhopkins-agrees-potrblogcom-ebola-model

Original post below
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"All models are wrong, but some are useful" is a well known quote by statistician George Edward Pelham Box. Unfortunately we have not seen a single useful Ebola model published anywhere.

All published Ebola models basically follow an uncontrolled cockroach reproduction premise (as shown below). In short if all goes well, it doesn't take too long before the whole world becomes literally knee deep in cockroaches. Of course in the real world, even though cockroaches are prolific, we don't use snow plows to clear them off the streets. The only thing these models are useful for are separating taxpayers from their money

The reality of these Ebola growth models is that the driving assumptions are valid only for modeling an Airborne spread in which countermeasures only slow that spread. And even then, these models are less than useful.

The reality is that if Ebola is contact spread via cultural behaviors, it's growth will follow a roller coaster type pattern as seen below.

Unlike the Ebola models presented in the media, a useful model would give insight into the "Behavioral Inflection Point" shown in the graph above.
Insights such as:

1. Are people fleeing to new geographic regions PRIOR to infection risk being high
2. What percentage of those fleeing are infected?
3. In what time frame must behavior changing information be supplied to avoid geographic spread
4. What is the influence of this Geographic node on the spread of Ebola to the Global network
5. What is the most effective use of countermeasures across the Global network

From what we know of West Africa

1. Rapid global transportation was shut down prior to large scale infection
2. Populated areas are altering interpersonal behavior to avoid spread
3. Deeply held cultural death cult behaviors are still ongoing
4. Population flight is still a major concern

What we expect:

1. The outbreak may rapidly self contain and rebound later as a sexually transmitted disease

2. An outbreak spread into Winter Climate regions has the potential to allow any equatorially suppressed airborne transmission routes to become the primary EXPLOSIVE infectious route.

Sources:

US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability, Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne

Complex Systems: Origin of Virulence; Chaos, & Radioactive Black Dirt

  We don't own this video, we uploaded it for YouTube's friendly controls, and because it actually features a Systems thinker working in a field of myopic bean counters, most of whom have no understanding under what boundary conditions their methods / tools produce garbage.

If your only interest is in Radiation, and why contaminated soils turn black skip to 29:28
If you want info on how black mushrooms may prevent radiation sickness skip to 34:54
If your interest is chaos and virulence skip to 37:50
If you want to understand why there are few systems thinkers in Biology and related Sciences watch the entire video.
If you want to understand why much of peer reviewed Quazi science is a scam, skip to 43:21
We use the term quazi-science because the methods used are based on self referential mathematical inference.

There are a some weakness in the presentation, the most glaring of which involves passive global warming acceptance.

Here are the video details from NIH
:
Category: Joseph J. Kinyoun
Runtime: 00:56:48
Description: The worlds inside and outside our bodies teem with microorganisms, but most don’t make us sick. Fungi in particular seem to leave mammals alone. Of the 1.5 million known fungal species, only a dozen or so are relatively common human pathogens, while insects and plants are frequent fungal targets. Why the difference? Arturo Casadevall, M.D., Ph.D., will address that question—and the intriguing possibility that the demise of dinosaurs and the rise of mammals were linked by differing susceptibility to fungal diseases—in the 2013 Joseph J. Kinyoun Memorial Lecture.

Casadevall is Professor and Chair of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University in New York. His research centers on the questions of how microbes cause disease and how hosts, such as humans, defend themselves. To explore this dynamic relationship, Casadevall and colleagues have long examined Cryptococcus neoformans, a common fungus that is harmless to healthy people but can cause serious disease, including lung infections and fungal meningitis, in immune-compromised people such as those with HIV/AIDS. Many of the laboratory’s projects seek to understand how hosts defend against C. neoformans and how the organism’s virulence contributes to disease.

Casadevall received doctoral and medical degrees from New York University and completed an internship and residency in internal medicine at Bellevue Hospital in New York City. He is the author of more than 570 papers and currently serves as Editor-in-Chief of the online, open-access journal mBio. Casadevall is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, serves on the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity, and co-chairs the NIAID Board of Scientific Counselors.

NIAID established the Kinyoun Lecture series in 1979 to honor Dr. Joseph J. Kinyoun, who in 1887 founded the Laboratory of Hygiene, forerunner of NIH, which launched a new era of scientific study of infectious diseases.

For more information go to http://www.niaid.nih.gov/news/events/meetings/kinyounSeries/Pages/2013KinyounLecture.aspx
Author: Arturo Casadevall, M.D., Ph.D., Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University in New York
Download: Download Video How to download a Videocast
Caption Text: Download Caption File
CIT Live ID: 13248
Permanent link: http://videocast.nih.gov/launch.asp?18211

Survivability Analysis of INFLUENZA vs Portable UVC Air Purifiers and Home HEPA Air Filters

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
COI Statement:  We have no conflicts of interest, and make no money from any of these products
Non-commercial use only
(c)2013  www.POTRBLOG.com

Summary:

We sought to identify if there were any home portable UVC air sterilizers on the market which might provide significant risk mitigation capability in the event of an H7N9 Influenza Pandemic. Based on design characteristics, only three home portable UVC purifiers were suitable candidates for an Influenza survivability analysis. Of those three, we eliminated one because it was advertised as also having a UVV capability to oxidize airborne chemicals.

Based on our survivability analysis, we have high confidence in only one unit:  the Swordfish portable home UVC air purifier  (#UVA1800RM).  Our results indicate that it has a one pass Probability of Kill (PK) capability against Influenza viruses which is significantly greater than the one pass Probability of Filtering (PF) capability of home portable HEPA filters of similar air flow.

Details:

We used data from the following three public research papers to derive PK and challenge values for the survivability analysis:

Aerosol Susceptibility of Influenza Virus to UV-C Light

Influenza Virus Aerosols in Human Exhaled Breath: Particle Size, Culturability, and Effect of Surgical Masks

VIRAL PENETRATION OF HIGH EFFICIENCY PARTICULATE AIR (HEPA) FILTERS 

Our methodology was based on taking published UVC lamp data, listed air flow rates, and estimated chamber sizes  to calculate minimal UVC fluence rates and air dwell time for the two units which we identified as likely having a germicidal capability against airborne Influenza.

One key design feature identifying potentially effective home portable airborne germicidal UVC units is a UVC lamp orientation axially placed in the direction of airflow (see picture below). The design parameters of HEPA filters typically preclude such an orientation, making combination home  HEPA / UVC units of dubious value.

Results:

UNIT 1:  Swordfish Model #UVA1800RM @ 30 Cubic Feet per Minute (setting 2)

PK@ 25% Relative Humidity = 0.99999999595  and  after 9000hrs = 0.999999926
PK@ 75% Relative Humidity = 0.99999956992  and  after 9000hrs = 0.999996123

A medical grade HEPA system would require three passes through its filter to remove the same quantity of Influenza as our analysis indicates the Swordfish model kills in one pass. (see chart below)



UNIT 2:  Germ Guardian Model# EV9102  @ 23 Cubic Feet per Minute

PK@ 25% Relative Humidity = 0.986  and  after 9000hrs = 0.967
PK@ 75% Relative Humidity = 0.961  and  after 9000hrs = 0.925

Our analysis indicates that the Germ Guardian would have to make five passes before it would kill the the same quantity of virus as the Swordfish. We suspect that its Influenza killing capability may be on par with the filtering capability which might be expected from a home grade HEPA unit. (see chart below)

Commentary:

Ideally exhausting virus laden air to the outdoors is preferable to sanitizing, filtering and recirculating stagnant room air.  But when that is not possible, our analysis indicates that against Influenza the Swordfish  Model #UVA1800RM can offer a quiet, low airflow, level of protection roughly equivalent to a louder portable medical grade HEPA unit with three times the air flow rate. We expect that value to be even higher vs a home grade HEPA unit.  Still, we envision that the Swordfish is best utilized in conjunction with HEPA units selected for significantly higher airflow rates, or in standalone mode where space / noise concerns would prevent a HEPA unit from being well utilized.

Watch the video for further detail and insight. (coming soon)

Chinese Publish HERBAL Treatment Protocols For H7N9 Bird Flu

In the CDC's movie CONTAGION, Forsythia was the evil herb of choice leading the flu infected masses astray. It turns out in the case of H7N9,  Forsythia is only 3rd on the Chinese Herbal ingredient list prescribed for the treatment of H7N9 by the editorial team of the Journal of Thoracic Disease (PubMed Listed).

Below we have excerpted their prescribed treatment regimen for the H7N9 Bird Flu which includes both "Western Medicine" and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), certainly a combination that would not be listed in any medical literature generated in the USA.

Frankly, we're not sure whats worse; taking an experimental "emergency use authorized" H7N9 vaccine of dubious efficacy laced with risky adjuvants, or taking herbal products sourced from China. But one thing we are sure of is that WHEN the Government starts promoting a H7N9 panic, the FDA will ban this sort of information and attempt to arrest anyone not capitulating to such a ban (ala Contagion). So enjoy your Mulberry Tea, while you still can.

Guideline on prevention and control of H7N9 avian influenza human infection

Excerpt from:

Editorial Team. Guideline on prevention and control of H7N9 avian influenza human infection. J Thorac Dis 2013;5(S2):S168-S172. doi: 10.3978/j.issn.2072-1439.2013.05.17

<.............>

5. Treatment

5.1 The clinically diagnosed and confirmed patients with H7N9 avian influenza human infection must be properly isolated and treated

5.2 Symptomatic treatment Oxygen inhalation, antipyretics, cough suppressants, and expectorants may be applied

5.3 Treatment with antiretroviral drugs Antiretroviral drugs must be applied as soon as possible

• Neuraminidase inhibitors: Oseltamivir or zanamivir has shown certain efficacy in treating H5N1 and H1N1 avian influenza human infections, and therefore is supposed to be effective for H7N9 avian influenza human infection. The recommended oral dose of oseltamivir for adult is 75 mg (150 mg for severe cases) twice daily for 5-7 days. The recommended dose of zanamivir for adult is 10 mg, inhaled, twice daily;
• Ion channel M₂ blockers: laboratory experiments have shown that the virus is resistent to both amantadine and rimantadine, and therefore the ion channel M₂ blockers should not be applied alone.

5.4 Traditional Chinese medicine

• The epidemic toxin invades the lung and the lung loses its capability to disperse and descend Qi
• Symptoms: fever, cough with little phlegm, headache, and muscle and joint pain.
• Treatment: clearing away heat and dispersing lung.
• Recommended prescriptions:
• Mulberry leaves, Honeysuckle, Forsythia, Fried almonds, Gypsum fibrosum, Anemarrhena, Reed rhizome, Artemisia annua, Scutellaria, and Raw licorice.
• Decoction was orally taken once or twice (every 4-6 hours) a day with water.
• Addition or subtraction: for patients with severe cough, Loquat leaf and Zhejiang Fritillaria can be added.
• Proprietary Chinese medicines: clearance and Detoxification Capsule, Lianhua Qingwen Capsule, and Qing Kai Ling Injection.
• Retention of Epidemic Toxin in the Lung; shock.
• Symptoms: high fever, cough, a small amount of sputum that is difficult to spit out, breathlessness, hemoptysis, cold limbs, dripping cold sweat, uneasiness, and even coma and delirium.
• Treatment: clearing Lung, detoxication, elimination of pathogen, and support of resistance.
• Recommended prescriptions:
• Mix-fried ephedra, Fried almonds, Gypsum fibrosum, Anemarrhena, Houttuynia, Scutellaria, Fried Gardenia, Polygonum cuspidatum, Cornus, and Heterophylla.
• Decoction was orally taken or via nasogastric tube once or twice (every 4-6 hours) a day with water.
• Addition or subtraction: For patients with high fever, trance, and even coma and delirium, Angongniuhuang Pill may be added. For patients with cold limbs and dripping cold sweat, Ginseng, Radix aconiti praeparata, Calcined dragon bone, and Calcined oyster may be added. For patients with hemoptysis, Radix paeoniae rubra, Agrimony, and Chinese arborvitae twig and leaf may be added. For patients with cyanotic lips, Radix notoginseng, Motherwort, Astragalus, and Angelica tail may be added.
• Proprietary Chinese medicines: Shen Mai Injection may be applied.

[EBO] Effects-Based Operations: The Math of Influence and YOU

EBO = "Effects-based operations are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war", based on analytical modeling and simulation.

Likely you have never heard of EBO;  and even if you have, very few have the combination of skills to implement it well. But, it is another matter to recognize when such analytical / decision tools, or poor attempts at them, are in use.

We suggest reading one of the seminal books on the subject, fortunately it just happens to be available as a free PDF download from "The Command and Control Research Program (CCRP)" of the Department of Defense. see link below

Effects Based Operations
Edward A. Smith 2003
http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Smith_EBO.PDF

UPDATE: Since we've linked to this book the CCRP has decided to make this particular download strangly unavailable, but most people can still order a 100% FREE paperback version (free shipping too) at this link

http://www.dodccrp.org/html4/books_order.html

POTRBLOG's Ingestible Radioactive Cesium Limits Given In Becquerels per Kilogram

As a default position, the POTRBLOG team will avoid eating /drinking any staple food or beverage that contains more than 3 Becquerels per kilogram of radioactive Cesium.

If you would like to understand how we calculated our personal intake limit, and its basis in the  EPA's published data, please watch the video.

If you find the knowledge useful, please donate to our professional lab food testing effort. We just received a  fresh sample of all natural grass fed beef from the same pastures, and your help in testing it will go a long way in exposing the truth.

Donate using the button below.

The PDF link to the EPA's water contamination limits is shown below
http://www.epa.gov/ogwdw/radionuclides/pdfs/guide_radionuclides_table-betaphotonemitters.pdf

ALERT! Radioactive Fallout Identified In and On US Ground Beef

The POTRBLOG team spent  $1,100 dollars to have US ground beef tested by professional labs for radioactive contamination from Plutonium, Strontium, and Gamma producing radionuclides. The ground beef samples tested were from a grass fed cow which went to the butcher in July of 2011; the radioactive testing occurred during the first week of May 2012.

The ground beef sample returned readings showing that the cow had ingested radioactive fallout. The sample also had readings which point to a recent nuclear fission and control rod fire occurring within the last few weeks. The results of that testing are presented in the video below.

As it stands now, we still have available PRE-Fukushima all natural, grass fed beef, and pasture raised pork for testing. We know exactly how, where and by whom the beef, and pork were humanely raised. We also have access to fresh beef, pork, and chicken raised under the same conditions.

Our goal is to independently and accurately determine what the true risk the populace faces from Fukushima fallout contaminating the food supply. We also believe we will be able to identify specific farm conditions that will allow you to pick food sources which have the lowest reasonable contamination risk. If you are interested in knowing the truth and bringing that information to the light of day, please use the DONATE button below.

Donate! We Are Now Testing Food Products To Identify Radiological Fallout

The POTRBLOG team recently spent over $1,100 dollars to professionally test natural food products for radioactive contamination from Fukushima. We found  some startling information, and those tests will be covered on the POTRBLOG site shortly.

If you would like to see such tests from professional laboratories continue, please use the "DONATE" button to do your part to make it happen. No donation is too small or too large.

As it stands now, we still have available PRE-Fukushima all natural, grass fed beef, and pasture raised pork for testing.  We know exactly how, where and by whom the beef, and pork were humanely raised. We also have access to fresh beef, pork, and chicken raised under the same conditions.

Our goal is to independently and accurately determine what the true risk the populace faces from Fukushima fallout contaminating the food supply. We also believe we will be able to identify specific farm conditions that will allow you to pick food sources which have the lowest reasonable contamination risk. If you are interested in knowing the truth and bringing that information to the light of day, please use the DONATE button below.

Cost Effective Fallout Friendly Radioactive Gardening

In this video we show our cost effective, radioactive risk mitigating, greenhouse gardening approach for dealing with radioactive fallout from Fukushima. The portable greenhouse shown in the video, and the container gardening book mentioned, are available via the "Risk Mitigation" Amazon widget on the right side of the screen. Clickable links are also embedded in this blogpost, below the video.

Live in San Francisco? You Inhaled 75 MILLION Plutonium Atoms In Just 4 days

In order to make the EPA's Plutonium 239 detection from March 15- March 18, 2011 understandable in terms people could visualize, we calculated the distributed average number of Pu-239 atoms inhaled by EVERY single person in the Bay area during that time period. We also discuss the other radioactive elements detected, and how the EPA's detection of Iodine-133 is especially troubling.

We hope the video will give people additional insight into the topic of "Hot Particles". For links to the charts shown and the associated assumptions and ground rules please follow the link below to the original blog post on this subject from April 2011:
Four Hundred & Eighty Two Lung Cancers from FOUR days in San Francisco !?! 

Here is an additional link to the EPA database so you may search and verify the data for yourself. EPA RadNet DATABASE QUERY

University of California Berkley Brawm Badly Bumfuzzled By Borealis [High Brow]

For those easily offended by the 'putting on of airs', please select this link for the tame "Low Brow" version

We here at the POTRBLOG site typically don't go around pointing out the low grade luwak in other people's coffee pots; but when those people are training the next generation of nuclear engineers who will sign off on the safety of future nuclear plants, it doesn't hurt to point out at least a few of the Foamy Lattes being served down to the public. Now for maximum affect, please reread that first paragraph envisioning the elocution of Dajit Dalliwal . (maybe the umlaut, should be  appropriated to denote such prosody) In that regard, we strongly suspect that Charlie Rose would certainly recognize the bovine luwak being served up by the UCB "More Brawn than Brain Team".

Here is the BRAWN analysis to which we were pointed, frankly it is difficult to make it past the Freudian Slip in their title without fondly reminiscing about Kafka.

"This is nonsense
Submitted by bandstra on Mon, 2011-10-31 16:58."

We'll try to keep a straight face long enough to make a video reply; in fact, merely recognizing that these people are EDUCATING nuclear engineers was enough to turn the Botox slightly askew.

In the mean time, here is a link to the post that seems to have driven the BRAWM team out of concealment.

"BAFFLING" Solar Storm Neither Baffling Nor A "Treat" for POTRBLOG.com Followers

If the BRAWM team's errors of cognitive flatulence and omission are already poking you in the cranium, feel free to post them here on our site. If you see any POTRBLOG errors, feel free to post them in Cyrillic.

University of California Berkley Brawm Badly Bumfuzzled By Borealis [Low Brow]

For those easily offended by tame low brow common language, please select this link for the tame "High Brow" version

We here at the Pissin' on The Roses blogspot typically don't go around pointing out the turds in other people's punch bowls; but when those people are training the next generation of nuclear engineers who will sign off on the safety of future nuclear plants, it doesn't hurt to point out at least a few of the floaties being served down to the public. Now for maximum affect, please reread that first paragraph envisioning a Jeff Foxworthy Southern drawl. (maybe the umlaut, should be  appropriated to denote such inflections) In that regard, we strongly suspect that Larry the Cable Guy would also recognize the chocolate kool aide being served up by the UCB "More Brawn than Brain Team".

Here is the BRAWN analysis which we were pointed to, frankly it is difficult to make it past the Freudian Slip induced title without lighting a match.

"This is nonsense
Submitted by bandstra on Mon, 2011-10-31 16:58."

We'll try to keep a straight face long enough to make a video reply; in fact just once again realizing that these people are TEACHING nuclear engineers was enough to turn that smile up side down.

In the mean time, here is a link to the post that seems to have driven the BRAWM team out of hiding.

"BAFFLING" Solar Storm Neither Baffling Nor A "Treat" for POTRBLOG.com Followers

If the BRAWM team's errors of cognition and omission are already poking you in the gizzard, feel free to post them here on our site. If you see any POTRBLOG errors, feel free to post them IN ALL CAPS.

June Cleaver Died of Ennui

The fifties mom so many cherish and yearn for wasn't sacrificed to "Womens' Rights", the fifties mom died of ennui.

The grocer gave her a plucked and packaged chicken, technology cooked her dinner, Sears' braided her rugs and the government taught her children.  Maytag washed the clothes and Standard Oil fed the iron horse.

What was she supposed to do?

Eureka! The floor was swept and the rugs beat, in an instant!

Housewives didn't stay home for 6000 years because men dominated them.  They stayed home because they were busy.  When the work finally dried up, they made tracks for new occupations.  Considering how long they had stayed home, the exodus was remarkably fast.

Womens' exodus from the kitchen followed mens' exodus from the farm very closely.  Men left the farm for the same reasons - technology lightened the farm work load while it offered new work in the cities.

The early women rights advocates were mostly single or weathily connected without dependent families. The early protestors weren't leaving their cows unmilked or the stove unstoked to join their sister suffragettes for the right to work in the cities. Thanks to industrialists like Isaac Singer, by the second wave in the 1960s, undergarments were even so plentiful and cheap they were burned like dried leaves.   When the home didn't need them, women sought work elsewhere.

Many voices these days decry the breakup of the nuclear family.  Rather than sitting on our heels blaming the vapid specter of "womens' rights", this author maintains the nuclear or even extended family can be reunited only by the thing that tore them apart...employment.  The biggest target today to bring home employment is home schooling.

If parents wish to recreate the family synthesis, they (particularly mothers) must realize that the family that is busy at home stays home.  Working outside the home is no more a repudiation of June Cleaver than working at home is an abdication of rights.  Far from it. Following the work is the nature of humanity.  Being busy at home is a shouldering of the self responsibility which rights exist to protect.

You may believe Ms. X when she says if Ward and the Beaver had been homeschooled, June would never have been an icon.

Fukushima Explosions, Crowd Sourcing Think Tanks, Arnie Gundersen, and our Tax Dollars

Previously, I had posted some analysis on the type of explosion at Fukushima Daiichi #3. Recently, Arnie Gundersen released another video on the subject where he calculated the distance a chunk of Plutonium flew in that explosion, and back calculated the velocity the chunk must have been traveling at to cover the required distance.

Mr Gundersen's data indicated the Plutonium was traveling at a supersonic velocity, and he extrapolated that the chunk must have been propelled by a supersonic shock wave, hence the explosion was a detonation. However, those extrapolations are faulty. The simplest example that shows the flaw is a firearm. Firearms propel bullets at supersonic speeds by deflagration (a detonation would likely destroy the firearm). An improved way to do the analysis is to postulate the force the Plutonium chunk was exposed and use F=MA to solve for the acceleration and so forth.

Of course, the matter of importance is not that Mr Gundersen might have made a better extrapolation. The matter of importance is that people like Mr Gundersen have stepped forward to take point as part of a crowd sourced Fukushima THINK TANK.

No one person can be expected to have all the knowledge to examine and understand the unprecedented experimental events that are on going as a result of Fukushima. But in the obvious and substantial absence of Government stepping forward and examining the totality of the Fukushima issue publicly, the only available solution is crowd sourced and internet driven; it is an ether devoid of the traditional media and one where academic institutions fear to tread.

Four Hundred & Eighty Two Lung Cancers from FOUR days in San Francisco !?!

Click on the images for a better view

The data and methodology shown is how I would have calculated my lung cancer risk from the Fukushima Plutonium particles detected in  California's  San Francisco Bay Area air by EPA’s RADNET from  3/15/11 to  3/18/11. How you apply the information to yourself is your own personal decision. However, once having seen the data and calculations, I believe it would be in your own personal best interests to contact your local, state, and federal politicians and petition them to provide detail risk assessments for your own situation. Assurances that everything is safe and okay mean nothing without facts and data.

My calculations indicate that had I been in San Francisco California from March 15th - 18th, 2011 approximately 75 million atoms of  Plutonium 239 would have entered my lungs during that 96 hour period. My calculations indicate that based on the 2008 population of the San Francisco Bay Area of California, approximately 482 individuals in San Francisco would have had an Alpha particle released in their lungs during that 96 hour time period. If the worst case fears of Plutonium toxicity are to be believed, 482 people in San Francisco will develop lung cancer from that single 96 hour exposure to airborne Fukushima Plutonium.

Many of the assumptions and groundrules I have used are obvious from the calculations. However, some assumptions are more debatable than others, and they deserve closer scrutiny in your own risk assessment.

(1) A 100% cancer rate from a single in-lung release of an Alpha particle from Plutonium. If this rate is to be believed, Plutonium may be the single most deadly thing on the planet. I left the rate at 100% so that it would be easy for others to recalculate their own risk based on their own research.

(2) The lung cancer calculation is based on a breath of 1 second duration in which every Plutonium atom that enters the lung also leaves the lung. If one assumes that the Plutonium will remain in the lung, the cancer rates will greatly increase.

(3) An atom of Plutonium releasing an Alpha particle in the Lung creates damage without respect to its exact location in the Lung space.

(4) Lung cancers resulting from the radioactive decay products of Plutonium were NOT directly examined; chemically induced cancers were also not directly examined.

(5) The calculations use an Air Sample Multiplier. No additional multiplication of the air sample was required because the dates of the air sampling span a time period in which it was physical possible for Plutonium to have traveled from Japan to California.

(6) The Plutonium fallout was a four day / 96 hour duration non-reoccurring event.


(7) The fact that the EPA reported negative  Curie values for Plutonium 238 is not indicative of under reporting the threat. A negative value is reported when the quantity of Plutonium found is less than an expected baseline value.

Plutonium Atoms Inhaled per Person in San Francisco California from 3/15/11 to 3/18/11

RADNET Detection Air Sampling Conversion factor Conversion factor Specific Activity Calculated Value Atomic Weight Calculated Value Avogadro's Number Calculated Value Breathing Rate Constant Calculated Total Four Day Lung Exposure

Radionuclide pCi/m^3 multiplier pCi/Ci Curies/gram grams/m^3 grams/mol mols/m^3 atoms/mol atoms/m^3 m^3/day Plutonium Atoms

Plutonium 239 0.0000065 1 1E+12 0.063 1.03175E-16 239.0521634 4.31599E-19 6.02E+23 2.60E+05 72 74,828,856

74,828,856

Potential San Francisco California Lung Cancers

from the calculated 3/15/11 to 3/18/11 Plutonium Exposure

RADNET Detection Air Sampling Conversion factor Individual Breathing Rate Individual Plutonium Inhalation Rate Disintegration Conversion Factor Individual Lung Exposure Time Alpha's exposed to Population San Francisco California Population Per Breath Alpha Exposure Population Per Day Alpha Exposure Single Alpha exposure to Lung Cancer Conversion Lung Cancers from Time Period

Radionuclide pCi/m^3 multiplier m^3/sec pCi/sec Alpha's per second per pCi Seconds Count People People People Percentage People

Plutonium 239 0.0000065 1 0.000833333 5.41667E-09 0.037 1 2.00417E-10 6,960,079 0.001394916 120.520728 100% 482.1

482

Seventy Three Lung Cancers from ONE day in Riverside California !?!

Click on the images to enlarge them.

The data and methodology shown is how I would have calculated my lung cancer risk from the Plutonium particles detected in Riverside California by EPA’s RADNET on 3/11/11 – 3/15/11. How you apply the information to yourself is your own personal decision. However, once having seen the data and calculations, I believe it would be in your own personal best interests to contact your local, state, and federal politicians and petition them to provide detail risk assessments for your own situation. Assurances that everything is safe and okay mean nothing without facts and data.

My calculations indicate that had I been in Riverside California on March 15th 2011 approximately 18.7 million combined atoms of Plutonium 238 and Plutonium 239 would have entered my lungs during that 24 hour period. My calculations indicate that based on the 2008 population of Riverside California, approximately 73 individuals in Riverside would have had an Alpha particle released in their lungs during that 24 hour time period. If the worst case fears of Plutonium toxicity are to be believed, 73 people in Riverside will develop lung cancer from that single 24 hour exposure to airborne Plutonium.

Many of the assumptions and groundrules I have used are obvious from the calculations. However, some assumptions are more debatable than others, and they deserve closer scrutiny in your own risk assessment.

(1) A 100% cancer rate from a single in-lung release of an Alpha particle from Plutonium. If this rate is to be believed, Plutonium may be the single most deadly thing on the planet. I left the rate at 100% so that it would be easy for others to recalculate their own risk based on their own research.

(2) The lung cancer calculation is based on a breath of 1 second duration in which every Plutonium atom that enters the lung also leaves the lung. If one assumes that the Plutonium will remain in the lung, the cancer rates will greatly increase.

(3) An atom of Plutonium releasing an Alpha particle in the Lung creates damage without respect to its exact location in the Lung space.

(4) Lung cancers resulting from the radioactive decay products of Plutonium were NOT directly examined; chemically induced cancers were also not directly examined.

(5) The calculations use an Air Sample Multiplier. The multiplier is used because the RADNET sample in question was based on 5 days of air filtering starting on the day of the Fukushima earthquake. Given the weather travel times from Japan to California, it is safe to assume that the entire Plutonium dosage occurred on the last day of the sample. Hence EPA’s listed concentration is 5 times too low.

(6) The Plutonium fallout was a one day / 24 hour duration non-reoccurring event.


(7) The fact that the EPA reported the exact same Curie values for both Plutonium 238 and Plutonium 239, despite their highly different Specific Activity values, is not indicative of under reporting the threat.

Plutonium Atoms Inhaled per Person in Riverside California on 3/15/11

RADNET Detection

Air Sampling Conversion factor

Conversion factor

Specific Activity

Calculated Value

Atomic Weight

Calculated Value

Avogadro's Number

Calculated Value

Breathing Rate Constant

Calculated Total Daily Lung Exposure

Radionuclide

pCi/m^3

multiplier

pCi/Ci

Curies/gram

grams/m^3

grams/mol

mols/m^3

atoms/mol

atoms/m^3

m^3/day

Plutonium Atoms/day

Plutonium 238

0.0000013

5

1E+12

17.3

3.75723E-19

238.04956

1.578E-21

6.02E+23

9.50E+02

72

68,411

Plutonium 239

0.0000013

5

1E+12

0.063

1.03175E-16

239.05216

4.316E-19

6.02E+23

2.60E+05

72

18,707,214

18,775,626

Potential Riverside California  Lung Cancers

from the calculated  3/15/11 Plutonium Exposure

RADNET Detection

Air Sampling Conversion factor

Individual Breathing Rate

Individual Plutonium Inhalation Rate

Disintegration Conversion Factor

Individual Lung Exposure Time

Alpha's exposed to

Population Riverside California

Population Per Breath  Alpha Exposure

Population Per Day Alpha Exposure

Single  Alpha exposure to Lung Cancer Conversion

Lung Cancers from 3/15/11

Radionuclide

pCi/m^3

multiplier

m^3/sec

pCi/sec

Alpha's per second per pCi

Seconds

Count

People

People

People

Percentage

People

Plutonium 238

0.0000013

5

0.00083333

5.41667E-09

0.037

1

2.0042E-10

2,100,516

0.000420978

36.372535

100%

36.4

Plutonium 239

0.0000013

5

0.00083333

5.41667E-09

0.037

1

2.0042E-10

2,100,516

0.000420978

36.372535

100%

36.4

73

The reason why Academics aren't publically providing analysis about Fukushima

There are a few reasons why academic and industry experts are not willing to communicate publicly about Fukushima and its fallout; primarily it’s because they don't know which way the learned herd is running. As all academicians so well know, the quickest death to one’s career is run opposite of the learned herd. From a prestige and monetary standpoint it is much better to be wrong but in agreement with the herd, than it is to be correct and in disagreement with the herd.

Of course, the strong risk of looking stupid is also holding some experts back from providing analysis. The risk of looking stupid is an especially great in a subject with such deep system of systems level complexities. There probably is no single subject matter expert that understands the entire scope of complexities we face as a result of Fukushima; there may have been someone with that skill set back in the cold war days, but he is long dead or senile by now. The odds are that any "expert" giving interviews and providing broadcast analysis has an agenda to sway the public in one direction or another. On the positive side, in such an environment it is also possible for lone voices to rapidly raise factual information to the surface.

Some of the more interesting public analyses I have seen are from Arnie Gundersen; I don’t know what biases he may have in the matter, but he certainly has given useful reverse engineering insight into the tangled web of assumptions , groundrules, and facts that would have to be the foundation lying down the rabbit hole of TEPCO’s status reports . The background required to make TEPCO’s status reports believable are often even more concerning than what TEPCO’s reports attempt to soothe; - but such is the way of tangled webs. The key to wade through an environment like the one we all face today is to maintain a critical mind regarding the wisdom of any “expert”; to quote Ms X: “ an open mind is like the town dump, everyone throws their garbage in”.

4/19/11 Thunderstorm Radioactive Fallout 5x background

Another radioactive thunderstorm is certainly not the greatest start to the 236th anniversary of the "shot heard around the world"; when the Governor of Massachusetts ordered the confiscation of weapons from the farmers in Lexington and Concorde.

Nor would I have envisioned myself as a Geiger counter bearing Paul Revere warning that the "The fallout is raining".  None-the-less here it is, A sample from the 4/19/11 7am thunderstorm tested 5x background (0.053 mR/hr). The sample was wiped from the hood of my SUV. The sample was unusually clean of dirt or debris.  Empirical data indicates that the radioactive fallout contamination is attracted to surface debris / dirt, this is an indication that the rain borne radioactive fallout will stick to and build up on skin.


A little more School House Rock about the April 19th battle of Lexington and Concorde

From Meatless Monday to Fat Friday

The Baltimore School District has taken up the banner of Meatless Mondays. This is a government (taxpayer) funded school district, feeding children.

And they are planning to intentionally deprive those children of meat at least one day a week.

Now, if that isn't bad enough, let's look at this practice in combination with some other alarming school related policies simmering around the country.

In Philadelphia, the principals are being graded on the number of Breakfasts the school district serves.

Breakfast participation will be part of the report card that rates principals each year, along with categories such as attendance and math and reading performance.

Here's a sample breakfast from the Philadelphia School District:

Rice Krispies
Graham Crackers
Pineapple Juice
1% Milk

I'm looking really hard for some protein or saturated fats. Nada. In case you are unaware of the history of the Graham cracker, take a few minutes to be amused. Of vegetarians, by vegetarians, for vegetarians. For the suppression of sexual urges. Hmm. All other health/carbohydrate problems aside, do you think maybe the school district has some ulterior motives in pushing this dish so prominently?

Back on track. So far, we have in these two school districts a real drive toward a high carb, low protein, low healthy fat diet, extended to breakfast.

Now let's not forget the president's recent push to extend the school day. If the children are going to school until 5 pm, is it a stretch at all to anticipate that soon the government would be feeding them supper as well?

Meatless, of course.

Beyond the weird anti-paleo dogma, meat is expensive. And if those anti-paleos have their way, it will be even more expensive once cap and trade sets in. So of course, school districts will jump on any band wagon that allows them to cut corners in their mandate to feed the children. Just like they are cutting corners in their mandate to feed the prisoners.

In fact, it may have already begun.

"Children are the next targets.” Fallon cites an Illinois school district pilot lunch program that is using textured soy protein instead of meat in popular dishes such as chili, spaghetti sauce, lasagna and imitation chicken nuggets.

Meatless Monday, Tofu Tuesday, Wimpy Wednesday, Tired Thursday and Fat Friday.

Respect for the Office

I do not understand this concept, and I'm hoping some clever readers might be able to help out.

Over and over, we are told that even if we disagree with the presidents' policies, we should "respect the office". What does that mean, exactly?

Is the President, by virtue of attaining the office, somehow in possession of superior physical or mental attributes, and thus should gain extra respect on account of physical or mental superiority to the rest of the citizens?

Or maybe the Office of President requires great concentration, and puts many heavy burdens on the man who holds it, and the respect asks that I give the President a wide berth so as not to disturb or distract from the weighty tasks?

Or is the respect one of fear, because the president, by virtue of the office, is capable of wielding great power and popping me in the slammer (or worse) at whim?

Perhaps, the respect for the office comes from the idea that the "Leader of the Free World" is a great humanitarian and uses the office to do wonderful things for humanity?

Is there another angle I'm missing? The second explanation is the most logical, but I never see that approach demonstrated in the application of the phrase "respect for the office". When Pittsburgh Steeler James Harrison turned down a social invitation to the White House, he was quite fulfilling the second explanation, and not taking the President away from his weighty and critical tasks, yet the Super Bowl winner was widely panned in the media for 'not respecting the office'. So, clearly not an application of the second, and most logical, interpretation.

What does it mean, then, "respect for the office"? Where does that respect come from, why is it deserved, and what does it demand that is different from respect for any other American?