We are still analyzing the data, and more details will follow; here is what we know so far.
Between April 29th 2012 and May 8th 2012 the following short half life fallout was indicated in a sample (a partial list):
- Ba-140 was identified at nearly the 95% confidence level.
- La-140 was detected in a sample below the 95% confidence level.
- Ce-141 was detected in a sample below the 95% confidence level.
- Ru-103 was detected in a sample below the 95% confidence level.
- Zr-95 was detected in a sample below the 95% confidence level.
- Nb-95 was detected in a sample below the 95% confidence level
We suspect the sample was contaminated on April 30th 2012 during a 20-30 minute exposure window to fresh air where frost developed on a frozen 100 square inch area sample surface area.
Given the multiple detections, some of which are parent/daughter pairs, and the short contamination exposure window, we strongly suspect a recent recriticality and fire at Fukushima.
edited to correct date of contamination to Sunday April 29th 2012
That's a whole lot of serious shit in that sample
ReplyDeleteWould the source have to be a fire at Fukushima? Is it possible that this stuff could be fallout from Japan's on-going incineration of contaminated debris? (Although I suppose iodine is more consistent with recent fission than with the incineration of debris from last spring).
ReplyDeleteThat first sentence should say a "recent fire" at Fuku-D (since there's no question it ultimately originated at that plant, regardless where it most recently came from).
DeleteAlso, assuming that it is from a recent event at Fuku-D, can you tell from the isotopes present what type of event is likely to have produced it? i.e., it seems like it could be a re-criticality/fission event, or it could be from spent fuel getting exposed to air and burning. Would these two types of events have noticeably different isotope "signatures"?
I know for many of us, the possible event that is currently raising the highest levels of concern is a fire in the #4 spent fuel pool, and one of my fears is that, if such an event happens, it will not be announced or reported on until long after the fact, with the result that we will all be exposed to its poison for days or weeks without any sort of warning.
@Nemo,
DeleteFe-59 (<95% confidence) was also indicated, its half life is about 45 days; just long enough that it might not be recent. Cr-51 (<95% confidence) was also indicated with a 27 day half life. The presence of these things might indicate fuel rods were involved.
@Nemo,
Deletelet me add, I can't imagine not being given a heads up that something as serious as an on going spent fuel pool fire was occurring. But if one is apt to believe that such a situation would be kept quiet, the current airborne sampling going on over Baltimore by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) might be an indicator (especially given the position of the jetstream). see http://www.gsnmagazine.com/node/26349?c=cbrne_detection.
@Nemo,
ReplyDeleteNo this would have to be from a recent fission event.
For example, the ENTIRE parent and daughter decay chain for Ba-140 is about 14.4 days. It was very recently created.
Could it be related to the fire at the chemical complex.
ReplyDeleteThe contamination is from a recent nuclear fission event.
Deletethe burning of radioactive waste in Japan has been occurring and will increase http://www.nishinippon.co.jp/nnp/item/302493 - translate - brief: "According to the city, crushing and sorting in the rubble of Ishinomaki provisional Luggage and packing is done to the bag, carry-out preparation is completed on the 18th. 22 cars loaded with rubble track is starting on the 19th, arriving in the city of Kitakyushu in 22 days. Burned for 24 hours together about 48 tons (Moji-ku) Shinmoji plant 32 tons, about 24 to 25 (Ward Kokurakita Plant) (Akira) Akira 23 to 24 days ash Add a temporary storage facility next incombustible Ming factory." I tweet this stuff & more via NoWarNow2011
ReplyDeleteBut, it could be a fission event - recent live cams posted by fuku1live showed huge bursts of what is probably radioactive steam - mostly at night best view. http://www.youtube.com/user/fuku1live
ReplyDeleteThe soot detected requires a recent fission event.
DeleteThe sample is from Saint Louis. The contamination occurred either in Saint Louis, Mo or along the Atlantic coast where the lab work was done.
ReplyDelete