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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

MAXIMUM ALERT: DALLAS EBOLA VICTIM MOST LIKELY ACQUIRED HIS INFECTION ON HIS FLIGHT


CDC's time line of the Dallas Ebola victim's flight date and symptom onset date indicates a greater than 50% probability that the Dallas Ebola victim ACQUIRED HIS INFECTION DURING HIS FLIGHT.

Per the Center For Disease Control's very own Ebola simulation model, 50% of all Ebola infections develop symptoms five and a half days after infection. Given that the Dallas victim's symptom onset occurred within 6 days of his Liberian departure flight; it is most likely that he/she was infected on that flight by someone else on that flight who was actively shedding Ebola virus.

Since the Dallas victim is most likely a secondary infection, patient zero from that flight is still on the loose and more victims are to follow in the near term. The situation is potentially catastrophic because of the massive number of potential secondary victims who have no African travel history and are likely to not attract attention in any Emergency room until massive hemorrhaging has started.

CDC Ebola Symptom Onset Distribution Days After Infection


DALLAS EBOLA Victim Time Line- HAT/TIP to the NYTIMES




Sources:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_x

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/01/health/airline-passenger-with-ebola-is-under-treatment-in-dallas.html?smid=tw-share

http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/s930-ebola-confirmed-case.html


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http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0041918

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997182/

http://vet.sagepub.com/content/50/3/514.full

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4113787/

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