Data:
1) The CDC has created a nCoV detection grid across the USA by deploying ~92,000 Coronavirus tests spread uniformly across 115 CDC qualified laboratories in the USA.
2) The CDC is holding a surge reserve of ~68,000 Coronavirus tests to throw at which ever US city(s) experience sustained transmission.
3) Each of these tests takes a minimum of 4 hours to perform
3) Each of these tests takes a minimum of 4 hours to perform
5) The deployment of the RAPID Coronavirus test to Primary Care Doctors, ER's, and Urgent Cares in June will vastly improve the nCoV detection
Analysis:
1) CDC's coronavirus test kit deployment strategy allows us to derive the Concept Of Operations (CONOPS) in regards of how CDC sees the coronavirus pandemic exploding in the USA.
2) From the surge reserve CDC is holding, it is clear that CDC expects that their current protocol limiting testing to persons with no more than 1 degree of freedom from a Chinese traveler will eventually fail and will result in the undetected breakthrough of sustained person to person transmission in the USA
3) The size of the surge reserve at ~68,000 tests indicates that the CDC is expecting the USA outbreak will be similar in size to the current outbreak in China as of Feb 10.
4) The delay in deployment of Rapid Coronavirus tests to Primary Care Doctors until mid-June, is an indication that CDC is optimistic that phase one of the Coronavirus outbreak will wind down by June, similar to the way Flu season winds down during late Spring and early Summer. And as a result, delaying Rapid Test acquisition until they are proven, outweighs the risk of quickly deploying a not fully vetted Rapid Test. BUT, if the outbreak doesn't wind down we'll (CDC) definitely need rapid tests by June.
IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY ACTIONS the POTRBLOG team is now taking:
(1) For emergency and portable decontamination we are using PDI Prevantics skin wipes containing 3.15% chlorhexidine gluconate and 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (or similar products)
PDI Prevantics is both rapid and persistent for hours in its viricide capability
PDI Prevantics is both rapid and persistent for hours in its viricide capability
Skin Wipes 3% Chlorhexidine 70% Alcohol
(2) We are actively using Hibiclens 4% Chlorhexidine surgical scrub as a full strength lotion applied to the hands as a persistent long duration viricide. The Hibiclens Gallon Jug Refill is more cost effective, but we may also substitute the significantly less expensive and slightly weaker 2% veterinarian chlorhexidine soaps as conditions and shortages unfold. 2% is the minimum strength we would use.
Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 4oz
Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 16oz
Hibiclens Gallon Jug
Chlorhexidine 2%
(3) We are using Germ-X Advanced 70% Ethanol hand sanitizer, as an inexpensive but very effective quick acting yet unfortunately short lived viricide.
GERM- X Advanced Hand Sanitizer 70% Alcohol
(4) We are also using Lysol-to-go 1 oz spray cans to disinfect shopping carts handles, public restrooms, etc.
Lysol-to-go 1oz Disinfectant Spray
Disclosures
(1) Our actions are focused on risk mitigation, based on a System of Systems analysis of CDC's actions, the available current knowledge of viricides, and the potential impacts of the Wuhan Coronavirus.
(2) We do not make recommendations as to what other people should do or buy; we only offer insight to the things we are actually doing and spending money on.
(3) If you use the links above to purchase these item we will receive monetary compensation from Amazon, which in turn will help us buy more of these items.
Source Data:
Shipping of CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diagnostic Test Kits Begins
Information for Laboratories 2019-nCoV Requests for Diagnostic Panels and Virus
BARDA Rapid Test Solicitation
Emergency Action! Coronavirus Asymptomatic Countermeasures
Quarantine supplies you wont realize you NEED until its too late
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