UPDATE 2/16/20
Better data from Los Alamos National Laboratory puts the probability that the Japanese tourist acquired his CoranaVirus infection in Hawaii at 99 to 99.9%
see
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Based on a EXTREEMLY CONSERVATIVE uniform data fit of COVID-19 Coronavirus incubation data taken from 1099 infected Chinese patients reported as having a 3 day Median and 0-24 day range
Analysis:
1) There is a 52% probability the Japanese man acquired his infection in Oahu, Hawaii
2) There is a 57% probability that the Japanese man acquired his infection in Maui, Hawaii
3) Overall there is an overall 67% probability that his infection was acquired in Hawaii.
Discussion:
1) Using a uniform distribution of infection on either side of the reported 3 day Median incubation period is an extremely conservative approach.
2) A conservative approach was chosen to establish a minimum boundary condition.
3) A less conservative but more likely accurate approach would have used a left skewed distribution with a high degree of kurtosis around the 3 day mark and a long tail stretched out to 24 days.
4) We expect that more accurate curve fit would indicate a 90+ probability that the Japanese tourist was infected in Hawaii
5) Its terrifying that a SARS-CoV2 aka COVID-19 infection was able to occur in Summer weather, as this indicates that this outbreak will continue and worsen through Summer.
6) Further confirmation of transmission in Hawaii, or in Summer weather locations like Australia and Indonesia would require the highest levels of risk mitigation
7) Confirmation of Summer weather transmission would be a strong indicator that this virus was Weaponized
8) Optimistically weaponzation would have been carried out for the sole purpose of making it easy and cost effective to infect Laboratory animals under humane temperature / humidity conditions.
9) Source Links and Data are at the bottom of this post
Purchases we've made to Risk Mitigate this Outbreak
Links to what we have purchased:
(1) For emergency and portable decontamination we are using PDI Prevantics skin wipes containing 3.15% chlorhexidine gluconate and 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (or similar products)
PDI Prevantics is both rapid and persistent for hours in its viricide capability
Skin Wipes 3% Chlorhexidine 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/38kbPsQ
(2) We are actively using Hibiclens 4% Chlorhexidine surgical scrub as a full strength lotion applied to the hands as a persistent long duration viricide. The Hibiclens Gallon Jug Refill is more cost effective, but we may also substitute the significantly less expensive and slightly weaker 2% veterinarian chlorhexidine soaps as conditions and shortages unfold. 2% is the minimum strength we would use.
Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 4oz
https://amzn.to/37bRnsJ
Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 16oz
https://amzn.to/39n3Tah
Hibiclens Gallon Jug
https://amzn.to/39pbw06
Chlorhexidine 2%
https://amzn.to/2Sht60d
(3) We are using Germ-X Advanced 70% Ethanol hand sanitizer, as an inexpensive but very effective quick acting yet unfortunately short lived viricide.
GERM- X Advanced Hand Sanitizer 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/378qXYY
(4) We are also using Lysol-to-go 1 oz spray cans to disinfect shopping carts handles, public restrooms, etc.
Lysol-to-go 1oz Disinfectant Spray
https://amzn.to/2vhCo3p
5) Garbage bags:
Don't expect the garbage trucks to roll regularly during a quarantine. Don't be caught short of garbage bags
Amazon Garbage Bag Link
https://amzn.to/2S4rKFQ
6) Toilet Paper
Toilet Paper will run out, and you don't want to be out in public looking and fighting for it.
Amazon Toilet Paper Link
https://amzn.to/387NJBr
7) Small Gas Cans
Unlike China, most Americans have to drive to get supplies. Don't expect gas stations to be open, and expect the ones that are open to be crowded. That last thing you want to do is increase your coronavirus exposure chances by making unnecessary gasoline stops.
Unfortunately, most modern American gas cans are now dangerous as all heck thanks to California and their friends in the Federal Government. Metal cans are preferable over plastic, and if it doesn't have a long nozzle (preferably flexible) you wont be able to use it to fill your cars gas tank.
NOTE: Several States require gasoline cans to be red and to say gasoline on them. Where possible the use of 100% gasoline is preferable to 10% Ethanol formulations for storage purposes.
Red Metal 10L
https://amzn.to/2H29ruY
Red Metal 20L
https://amzn.to/38h01aZ
Red Plastic 2 Gallon
https://amzn.to/2vYFp95
Red Plastic Flexible Nozzle 5 Gallon
https://amzn.to/2veYNxW
Green Explosafe Gas Can 5L (there is no safer way to transport or store fuel)
https://amzn.to/2vtpLC4
Outside of America, we prefer Valpro / Wavian Explo-Safe gas cans.
https://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2020/02/quarantine-supplies-you-wont-realize.html
Fuel Stabilizer:
Gas does not have a long shelf life, especially in plastic gas cans.
STA-BIL MARINE FORMULA ETHANOL TREATMENT 8 OZ
https://amzn.to/2H3ecUY
8) Car Parts and More
Almost all car parts and maintenance items are made in China, those factories are already closed. With an outbreak in the USA expect car dealerships and local garages to be shutdown for lack of parts and for fear of being infected.
We bought everything we thought we might need through FALL of 2020
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM
Many of these items may yet still be available at your local stores.
If you buy through any of the Amazon links, we will get a commission. We did NOT include links to purchase cough medicine based on reports that China was tracking who purchased cough medicine and such tracking might be expected in the USA.
Our Amazon Link
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM
Source Links and Detail Chart
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