CDC's time line of the Dallas Ebola victim's flight date and symptom onset date indicates a greater than 50% probability that the Dallas Ebola victim ACQUIRED HIS INFECTION DURING HIS FLIGHT.
Per the Center For Disease Control's very own Ebola simulation model, 50% of all Ebola infections develop symptoms five and a half days after infection. Given that the Dallas victim's symptom onset occurred within 6 days of his Liberian departure flight; it is most likely that he/she was infected on that flight by someone else on that flight who was actively shedding Ebola virus.
Since the Dallas victim is most likely a secondary infection, patient zero from that flight is still on the loose and more victims are to follow in the near term. The situation is potentially catastrophic because of the massive number of potential secondary victims who have no African travel history and are likely to not attract attention in any Emergency room until massive hemorrhaging has started.
CDC Ebola Symptom Onset Distribution Days After Infection
DALLAS EBOLA Victim Time Line- HAT/TIP to the NYTIMES
Sources:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_xhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/01/health/airline-passenger-with-ebola-is-under-treatment-in-dallas.html?smid=tw-share
http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/s930-ebola-confirmed-case.html
Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood Can Kill 500,000 People
US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability, Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0041918
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997182/
http://vet.sagepub.com/content/50/3/514.full
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4113787/
A possible secondary Ebola case is being reported by Dallas TV Station WFAA.
ReplyDeleteThe secondary case is a “Close associate” of Case Zero.
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Thompson: Associate of Dallas Ebola patient under close monitoring
Marjorie Owens , WFAA 8:56 a.m. CDT October 1, 2014
http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/health/2014/10/01/thompson-dallas-county-ebola-patient-cases/16524303/
DALLAS — Due to close contact with a patient diagnosed with the Ebola virus, a second person is under the close monitoring of health officials as a possible second patient, said the director of Dallas County’s health department Wednesday morning in an interview with WFAA.
Zachary Thompson, the director of Dallas County Health and Human Services, says all those who’ve been in close contact with the diagnosed patient are being monitored as a precaution. However, Thompson pointed to one person in particular as a potential second case.
“Let me be real frank to the Dallas County residents, the fact that we have one confirmed case, there may be another case that is a close associate with this particular patient,” he said in a Wednesday interview with WFAA. “... So this is real. There should be a concern, but it’s contained to the specific family members and close friends at this moment.”
>snip<
IF the Associate was also on the same flight, its possible the Associate was actually the PRIMARY victim. And that would be VERY BAD, as it would mean the primary was shedding virus the entire flight from Liberia to Brussels to Washington DC Dulles to Dallas. Could literally be thousands of people directly exposed along that route; most of who would not cause any hint of concern if they showed up at a Hospital with flu like symptoms
DeleteThanks to Allah I have immunity against many infectious diseases e-mail: riszhat@gmail.com treatment for Ebola using me to develop a vaccine against Ebola
ReplyDeleteGiven the fact that a survivor of the Ebola virus can still infect someone up to 7 weeks after recovering, any idea if there were any survivors out of Liberia with him?? Or is it more likely that he is a day 8 symptomatic person? Also does anyone know the average lifespan of a victim after 1st onset until death or recovery?
ReplyDelete