Back in May we warned that the U.S. Government was making significant preparations for a Nuclear / Radiological Disaster , since then we have been analyzing the large number of recent Federal Solicitations related to Project BioShield for insight into U.S. Government's threat matrix. Congress renewed Project BioShield in March as part of the Pandemic All Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act of 2013, a direct result of the H7N9 Hemorrhagic Bird Flu outbreak in China.
As one can envision, the focus is on Pandemic Avian Influenza, however there are also Medical Counter Measures (MCM) budget line items for the whole Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threat spectrum. The mix of these line items (and how treatments overlap) increases the difficulty of figuring out specifically which scenarios the U.S. Government perceives as likely / significant threats.
But with much diligence, we have been able to look at the released solicitations and reverse decompose their requirements into the Concept of Operations which created them. When time becomes available, we will go into more detail, and provide source links for the analysis (and likely a video too). But for the moment, an executive summary of the radiological risk planning we have surmised will have to suffice.
Radiological Disaster Vignettes (in no particular order)
(1) Fukushima: Large scale treatment of U.S. Military personnel stationed in Tokyo for Acute Radiation Sickness resulting from rapidly escalating Nuclear activity at Fukushima
(2) Limited tactical nuclear exchange outside of CONUS
(3) Nagasaki scale Terrorist attack on US Soil via improvised Plutonium Fizzle device
(4) Chernobyl style incident at a US Nuclear Site
All of the above threat scenarios fit the CONOPS of the logistical, supply chain, and medical treatment constraints evident in the RECENT Federal solicitations we have examined.