DEFCON 1 HAWAII: 99% Probability On Going Communal Spread Is Underway In Hawaii

                                             

                                               

Synopsis:

High quality data from Los Alamos National Labs [LANL] indicates there is a 99% probability a Japanese tourist in Hawaii acquired his SARS-CoV-2 aka COVID19 infection during the nearly 2 week period he was in Hawaii on vacation. (source links and raw data are at the end of this post)

Given the high probability (and uncertainty on how rapidly it may spread in Hawaii's climate) combined with the high societal impact, prudent risk mitigation MAY indicate that now is the time to

1) Either, hunker down and gather supplies while it is still possible and economical to do so

2) Or, escape / evacuate the islands while it is still possible.

 Analysis of  Symptom Onset date vs Infection Date:

1) He was in Maui for 8 days from Jan 27 to Feb 3

2) He was in Oahu for 5 days from Feb 3 to Feb 7

3) Symptom onset was Feb 5th - Feb 6th, based on News Reports

4) Hospitalization date was Feb 8th, In Japan with a 102F fever

5) LANL data reports initial exposure to symptom onset is 4.2 days

6) LANL data indicates 99.9% of cases have symptom onset within 11 days of infection

7) LANL data indicates 99.2% of victims have symptom onset within 10 days of infection

8) LANL data indicates 98.5% of victims have symptom onset within 9 days of infection

9) The Japanese victim had symptom onset on day 10 of his Hawaii vacation [max range day 9-11]

10) Based on Infection vs Onset data there is a 99% to 99.9% probability he was infected in Hawaii

Risk Mitigation Discussion: 

It is clear with near certainty that the Japanese tourist was infected with Coronavirus during his vacation in Hawaii. That infection indicates that previously undetected community spread of the SARS-CoV2 aka COVID19 virus was ongoing in Hawaii at minimum during late January and early February. The lowest bound for the 1st infection in Hawaii would probably be 12/31/19.

The LANL analysis indicated that 'in China it is estimated that early in the epidemic the number of infected individuals doubled every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6'

IF those conditions hold true in Hawaii, and making the conservative assumption that the Japanese tourist was infected by Patient Zero, the LANL data would indicated that as of Valentine's Day there would have been approximately 48 to 213 undetected SARS-CoV2 cases in Hawaii. Whether those replication numbers apply in Hawaii's climate is uncertain, but given the certainty of community infection and the societal impacts of COVID-19 infection. I can only draw the conclusion that if I was in Hawaii

1) I would either immediately hunker down and accumulate needed supplies while such actions were still viable.

2) Or, I would evacuate the Islands while there was still capability to do so.

If Hawaii's Department of Public Health takes zero action, LANL's data indicates there will be over 1 million cases by mid-March.

Data Strength and Weaknesses:

Strengths:

1) Credibility of Los Alamos National Laboratory

2) Highest Quality Raw Data Available

3) Raw data is from Individuals who 'had all traveled to Wuhan a short time preceding symptoms onset. Since these individuals were the first cases detected in the provinces outside of Wuhan, it is likely that the infection occurred during their recent stay in Wuhan'

Weaknesses:

1) While the infection / onset data is very high quality, it is drawn from a pool of only 24 people.

2) Hawaii is not China, hence COVID19's  Reproduction number R0 may be lower and rates of spread may be different.

Mainland Emergency Risk Mitigation Actions We Have Taken.

(1) For emergency and portable decontamination we are using PDI Prevantics skin wipes containing 3.15% chlorhexidine gluconate and 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (or similar products)
PDI Prevantics is both rapid and persistent for hours in its viricide capability

Skin Wipes 3% Chlorhexidine 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/38kbPsQ



(2) We are actively using Hibiclens 4% Chlorhexidine surgical scrub as a full strength lotion applied to the hands as a persistent long duration viricide. The Hibiclens Gallon Jug Refill is more cost effective, but we may also substitute the significantly less expensive and slightly weaker 2% veterinarian chlorhexidine soaps as conditions and shortages unfold. 2% is the minimum strength we would use.


Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 4oz
https://amzn.to/37bRnsJ
Hibiclens Foaming Hand Pump 16oz
https://amzn.to/39n3Tah
Hibiclens Gallon Jug
https://amzn.to/39pbw06
Chlorhexidine 2%
https://amzn.to/2Sht60d




(3) We are using Germ-X Advanced 70% Ethanol hand sanitizer, as an inexpensive but very effective quick acting yet unfortunately short lived viricide.

GERM- X Advanced Hand Sanitizer 70% Alcohol
https://amzn.to/378qXYY



(4) We are also using Lysol-to-go 1 oz spray cans to disinfect shopping carts handles, public restrooms, etc.

Lysol-to-go 1oz Disinfectant Spray
https://amzn.to/2vhCo3p




5) Garbage bags:

Don't expect the garbage trucks to roll regularly during a quarantine. Don't be caught short of garbage bags

Amazon Garbage Bag Link
https://amzn.to/2S4rKFQ

6) Toilet Paper

Toilet Paper will run out, and you don't want to be out in public looking and fighting for it.

Amazon Toilet Paper Link
https://amzn.to/387NJBr


7) Small Gas Cans

Unlike China, most Americans have to drive to get supplies. Don't expect gas stations to be open, and expect the ones that are open to be crowded. That last thing you want to do is increase your coronavirus exposure chances by making unnecessary gasoline stops.

Unfortunately, most modern American gas cans are now dangerous as all heck thanks to California and their friends in the Federal Government. Metal cans are preferable over plastic, and if it doesn't have a long nozzle (preferably flexible) you wont be able to use it to fill your cars gas tank.

NOTE: Several States require gasoline cans to be red and to say gasoline on them. Where possible the use of 100% gasoline is preferable to 10% Ethanol formulations for storage purposes.

Red Metal 10L
https://amzn.to/2H29ruY

Red Metal 20L
https://amzn.to/38h01aZ

Red Plastic 2 Gallon
https://amzn.to/2vYFp95

Red Plastic Flexible Nozzle 5 Gallon
  https://amzn.to/2veYNxW

Green Explosafe Gas Can 5L (there is no safer way to transport or store fuel)
https://amzn.to/2vtpLC4






Outside of America, we prefer Valpro / Wavian  Explo-Safe gas cans.
https://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2020/02/quarantine-supplies-you-wont-realize.html


Fuel Stabilizer:

Gas does not have a long shelf life, especially in plastic gas cans.

STA-BIL MARINE FORMULA ETHANOL TREATMENT 8 OZ
https://amzn.to/2H3ecUY




 8) Car Parts and More

Almost all car parts and maintenance items are made in China, those factories are already closed. With an outbreak in the USA expect car dealerships and local garages to be shutdown for lack of parts and for fear of being infected.

We bought everything we thought we might need through FALL of 2020
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM

Many of these items may yet still be available at your local stores.

If you buy through any of the Amazon links, we will get a commission. We did NOT include links to purchase cough medicine based on reports that China was tracking who purchased cough medicine and such tracking might be expected in the USA.

Our Amazon Link
https://amzn.to/3biqqqM

Source Links and Data:

Hat tip to Johann Müller @JMuller_5050 for pointing us to this LANL paper there by allowing us to update our previous analysis with better data:  

[ABSTRACT], 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

[Full Citation] 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

Supplementary Materials for “The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated"

Couple Diagnosed with Coronavirus After Returning to Japan From Hawaiian Vacation

BREAKING: Japan Resident with Coronavirus was on Maui and O‘ahu